QQQ and tech ETFs are leading the surge off the April low, but there is another group leading year-to-date. Year-to-date performance is important because it includes two big events: the stock market decline from mid February to early April and the steep surge into early June. We need to combine these two events for a complete performance picture.

TrendInvestorPro uses a Core ETF ChartList to track performance and rank momentum. This list includes 59 equity ETFs, 4 bond ETFs, 9 commodity ETFs and 2 crypto ETFs. The image below shows the top 10 performers year-to-date (%Chg). Seven of the top ten are metals-related ETFs. Gold Miners (GDX), Silver Miners (SIL), Platinum (PLTM) and Gold (GLD) are leading the way. The Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) are the only three non-commodity leaders. The message here is clear: metals are leading.

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TrendInvestorPro has been tracking the Platinum ETF (PLTM) and Palladium ETF (PALL) since their big breakout surges on May 20th. The chart below shows PALL with a higher low from August to April and a breakout on May 20th. The ETF fell back below the 200-day SMA (gray line) in late May, but resumed its breakout with a 7.75% surge this week.

The bottom window shows the PPO(5,200,0) moving above +1% on May 21st to signal an uptrend in late May. This signal filter means the 5-day EMA is more than 1% above the 200-day EMA. The uptrend signal remains valid until a cross below -1% (pink line). As with all trend-following signals, there are bad signals (whipsaws) and good signals (extended trends). Given overall strength in metals, this could be a good signal that foreshadows an extended uptrend.

TrendInvestorPro is following this signal, as well as breakouts in other commodity-related ETFs. Our comprehensive reports and videos focus on the leaders. This week we covered flags and pennants in several tech ETFs (XLK, IGV, SMH, ARKF, AIQ, MAGS). Click there to take a trial and get your four bonuses. 

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Most religions of the world have the fundamental beliefs that are strikingly similar to the Ten Commandments. History has taught humanity that life does not seem to work well without such guiding principles. As responsible parents, we should have a parallel foundation of ten life skills that we impart part to our children. Your list will vary from mine, of course, but these are the ten essential precepts which I imparted to my son.

1. Learn the basic life skills such as hygiene, cooking, cleaning, etc.
2. Develop and maintain positive relations with friends and family.
3. Keep a positive ‘can-do’ attitude exuding confidence and good self-esteem.
4. Have strong ethics and values centered around honesty, morality and empathy for others.
5. Develop strong communication skills, both verbal and written.
6. Develop strong problem solving skills, curiosity, education, and rational thinking.
7. Set goals and maintain the motivation to overcome life’s inevitable challenges.
8. Appreciate the spiritual side of life.
9. Keep healthy habits pertaining to diet, exercise, and lifestyle.
10. Understand the tenets of financial literacy relating to money, saving, budgeting, and spending.

Many parenting books have been written on each of these ten topics, but I’d like to highlight the last one – #10. I propose that financial literacy alone has 10 essential skills that we should cultivate in our children. Giving them the gift of a money-wise toolkit along with your time will go along way to ensure their long-term success. It will be the proud legacy you leave and how you’ll be remembered.

These are my Ten Financial Commandments to teach your offspring.

1. Start early and encourage your kids to embrace investing as a hobby. It’s intellectually stimulating and they’ll meet great people.
2. Invest consistently and regularly. Don’t try to time the market. As of yet, no one has successfully created that algorithm.
3. Warren Buffet famously described the magic of compounding as “the eighth wonder of the world.” He likened it to a snowball rolling down a long hill, accumulating more snow as it rolls. Do the math; it’s true.
4. Avoid debt and leverage. Buying a house or college loan aside, credit card debt and onerous fees can ruin you.
5. Ignore fads and hot tips. You’ll be inevitably late, pay too much and experience the bursting of the bubble eventually.
6. Day trading is not investing, and it’s important to understand the difference. If you are an adrenaline addict and absolutely must day trade, then allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to this activity and consider it your “funny money” that’s expendable. Trading is indeed part of successful investing, but overtrading is not.
7. Pay attention to fees. One percent a year may not sound like much, but when you do the calculations and look at a 10-15 year timeframe, you’ll lose out big-time. Fees represent your money that doesn’t get reinvested or compounded for you over the span of those 15 years.
8. Be careful which assets you marry. Some have long-term handcuffs, high fees, unattractive risk-to-reward ratios and low probabilities of making you wealthier. I’ve never forgotten this famous quote from John Bogle, who founded Vanguard: “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack; buy the haystack.” In other words, buying the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is a reasonable strategy.
9. Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Young people often think that if they lose big, they’ll have many years to recover. My point is, why lose at all? Asset protection should always be a paramount objective throughout one’s life. Start young.
10. Be action-oriented. Start today. Don’t procrastinate. Don’t make excuses. Buy a good investment book. (I humbly suggest the one I wrote with my son.) Start a free trial at StockCharts.com. Do some paper trading. You might discover you are the second coming of Warren Buffett!

In a spirit of full disclosure, it’s important that I acknowledge the other half of the equation in writing about the ten basic life skills and financial commandments instilled in my son. He was also raised by a devoted and well-educated mother who has an MBA and understands the markets as well.

The bottom line: teach your children about money management. If you don’t, you are intentionally placing them instead into the hands of that merciless professor called “Experience”. The tutorial will be ruthless, and the lessons learned will be costly and late.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

• Author, “Tensile Trading: The 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery” (Wiley, 2016)
• Developer of the “Stock Market Mastery” ChartPack for StockCharts members
• Presenter of the best-selling “Tensile Trading” DVD seminar
• Presenter of the “How to Master Your Asset Allocation Profile DVD” seminar

P.S. If you would like to be notified when I post a new Traders Journal blog, please submit your preference via the tile in the right column titled FOLLOW THIS BLOG.

All of our major indices continue to rally off the April 7th, cyclical bear market low. A couple, however, have broken out of key bullish continuation patterns that measure to all-time highs. I’ll focus on one in today’s article.

Russell 2000

The IWM is an ETF that tracks the small-cap Russell 2000 and it’s chart couldn’t be much more bullish right now. After setting an all-time high on November 25, 2024 at 243.71, the IWM fell into its own cyclical bear market, dropping to a low of 171.73 on April 7th. That represented a drop of 71.98 points, or 29.54%, well beyond the 20% cyclical bear market threshold. A bottoming reverse head & shoulders pattern formed and I’ve been awaiting for a breakout above neckline resistance at 211. We saw that on today’s open after nonfarm payrolls highlighted our somewhat resilient economy as jobs came in ahead of expectations and the unemployment rate held steady. Check out this chart on the IWM:

I’m not saying that we’ll see a straight up move to 249, and short-term direction could be impacted by how we finish today. A weak afternoon could lead to further short-term selling, possibly back to the rising 20-day EMA. But, ultimately, and during 2025, I’m looking for that all-time high. A strong finish this afternoon and close on or near the daily high would add more bullishness to this chart.

Leading Stocks in Leading Industry Groups

The small cap IWM is no different than any of our other major indices, like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. When you see an index breakout, you need to look to the leading stocks in that area in order to outperform the benchmark index. We started our Leading Stocks ChartList (LSCL) two weeks ago and the results have been absolutely phenomenal so far, which I would expect them to be. After last week, we produced our 2nd weekly LSCL and the results have been awesome once again. There were 43 stocks included and 32 of the 43 have outperformed the S&P 500 this week. That’s similar results to our first weekly LSCL.

Individual stock leaders from our LSCL included the following big winners as of 1pm ET today:

• PRCH: +16.89%
• DOMO: +15.75%
• LASR: +15.40%
• HOOD: +15.10%
• QBTS: +13.17%
• TTMI: +11.62%
• ZS: +10.76%

These are exceptional returns when you consider the benchmark S&P 500 gained just 1.38% this week.

I want to provide all of our followers a SPECIAL OFFER to join our FREE EB Digest newsletter. Subscribe HERE with only your name and email address (no credit card required), and we’ll provide you a link and password to download this unique Leading Stocks ChartList (LSCL) and check it out for yourself. You need to be an Extra or Pro member at StockCharts in order to download the ChartList into your account. Basic members and non-members can view the ChartList and check out the stocks we include for next week.

Happy trading!

Tom

This week, we got a smorgasbord of jobs data — JOLTS, ADP, weekly jobless claims, and the nonfarm payrolls (NFP). Friday’s NFP, the big one the market was waiting for, showed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, which was better than the expected 130,000. Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month.

The stock market rallied on the news. The S&P 500 rose above the 6000 level and closed slightly above it. That’s the first time the index has hit the 6K level since February. And the party wasn’t just in the S&P 500. All the major stock market indexes closed higher, and the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed below 17, suggesting investors are pretty complacent.

Sector Performance: Tech Takes the Lead

When you look at which sectors did best this week, it’s pretty clear that Technology was leading the charge. But is the leadership as strong as it was last year?

To answer, we can begin by taking a look at the MarketCarpet for S&P Sector ETFs below. It clearly illustrates the strength of the Technology sector.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY PERFORMANCE OF THE S&P SECTOR ETFS. Technology is in the lead while Consumer Staples is the laggard.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Now, if you drill down, it’s evident from the MarketCarpet of the Technology Sector that heavily weighted large-cap stocks, across the many different categories within the sector, displayed strong performance for the week.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY PERFORMANCE OF TECHNOLOGY SECTOR. Large-cap heavily weighted stocks were in the green this week.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Semis Grind Higher

Within tech, the semiconductors look especially strong, with several dark green squares in the MarketCarpet. This warrants a closer look at this industry group.

The weekly chart of the VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF (SMH) shows an upside move, with the ETF trading above its 40-week simple moving average. However, SMH is still underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher and is in better shape since the end of March, but needs to gain more momentum to push it into overbought territory.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF VANECK VECTORS SEMICONDUCTOR ETF (SMH). While the price action in SMH is leaning towards the bullish side, it’s underperforming the SPY and needs more momentum.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If SMH continues to move higher with strong momentum, it would be a positive indication for the equity markets. However, there are several moving parts that investors should monitor.

Closing Position

While stocks are inching higher on low volatility, news headlines disrupt trends, sometimes drastically.

The weakening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields can sometimes signal headwinds for the stock market. Next week is going to be all about inflation, and we’ll get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for May.

With the job numbers in the rearview mirror, investors will be focused on inflation, especially since the Fed meets the following week. As of now, the Fed isn’t expected to make any changes to interest rates until perhaps their September meeting. Let’s see if next week’s inflation data changes the picture.

Watch the price action unfold by monitoring the StockCharts MarketCarpets and the StockCharts Market Summary page.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Stay ahead of the market in under 30 minutes! In this video, Mary Ellen breaks down why the S&P 500 just broke out, which sectors are truly leading (industrials, technology & materials), and what next week’s inflation data could mean for your portfolio.

This video originally premiered June 6, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

After consolidating for two weeks, the Nifty finally appeared to be flexing its muscles for a potential move higher. Over the past five sessions, the Nifty traded with an underlying positive bias and ended near the week’s high point while also attempting to move past a crucial pattern resistance. The past week saw the Index oscillating in the 527-point range, which was in line with the previous weeks. The volatility also cooled off; the India VIX came off by 9% to 14.63 on a weekly basis. While staying largely in a range trading with a positive bias, the headline Index closed with a net weekly gain of 252.35 points (+1.02%).

Over the past couple of weeks, the Nifty has traded in a well-defined range created between 24500-25100 levels. This would mean that the markets would remain devoid of directional bias unless they take out 25100 on the higher side or violate the 24500 level. Despite visibly strong undercurrents, staying reactive to the markets rather than getting predictive would be prudent. Although there are heightened possibilities of the Nifty taking out the 25100 level, we must consider it as resistance until it is taken out convincingly.

The coming week is set to see a stable start; the levels of 25150 and 25400 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 24800 and 24500. The trading range is expected to get wider than usual.

The weekly RSI is 60.94; it continues to remain neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A strong white candle emerged; this shows the bullish trend that the markets had during the week.

A pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty resisted the upward rising trendline that began from the low of 21350 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. The Nifty has attempted to penetrate it after resisting it for a couple of weeks.

Overall, the coming week may see the markets trading with an underlying bullish bias. However, for this to culminate in a good trending move, the Index will have to take out the 25100-25150 zone convincingly on the upside. Until this happens, the markets may continue to consolidate in a broad trading range. Unless there is a strong move that surpasses the 25100-25150 zone, one must consider this level as an immediate resistance point. Some pockets have run up too hard over the past few days; one must also focus on protecting gains at current levels rather than chasing the up moves. Fresh purchases must be kept limited in stocks with strong technical setups and the presence of relative strength. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index continues to build on its relative momentum while staying inside the leading quadrant. It may continue outperforming the markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Consumption, and PSE Index are also inside the leading quadrant but are seen giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Bank Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Services Sector, Financial Services, and Commodity Indice are also inside the weakening quadrant. Individual performance of components from these groups may be seen, but overall relative performance may slow down over the coming weeks.

The Nifty FMCG Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Pharma Indice are languishing in this quadrant. The Nifty IT index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is seen in a strong bottoming-out process while improving its relative momentum.

The Nifty Energy, Media, Realty, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant and may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae