Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$116,339, a 1.1 percent decline in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$114,985, while its highest was US$116,751.

Bitcoin price performance, August 18, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Markets pulled back considerably on Sunday (August 17) night ahead of a pivotal meeting between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders.

Later this week, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech after the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. His remarks are highly anticipated by investors who are looking for clarity on the Fed’s next move.

Ethereum (ETH) was priced at US$4,359.32, down by 2.3 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was $4,282.60, and its highest valuation was US$4,381.21.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) was priced at US$183.41, down by 4.4 percent over 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$181.21, while its highest level was US$184.80.

• XRP was trading for US$3.08, down 0.6 percent in the past 24 hours, and its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$2.98.

• Sui (SUI) was trading at US$3.62, down by 4.6 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$3.55, while its highest was US$3.64.

• Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.92, down 3.7 percent over 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$0.9026, while its highest was US$0.9283.

Today’s crypto news to know

South Korea to introduce stablecoin regulations

South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) is set to introduce a regulatory framework for a won-backed stablecoin in October, according to a report from South Korean news outlet MoneyToday.

The initiative, part of the nation’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, aims to establish clear rules for crypto service providers and is expected to outline requirements for stablecoin issuance, collateral management and internal control systems. The FSC has been developing this framework since 2023 through its virtual asset committee.

Democratic Party of Korea Representative Park Min-kyu confirmed that the government bill is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly around October. This regulatory move follows a June collaboration among major South Korean banks to develop a won-pegged stablecoin, intended to safeguard the currency against increasing dollar dominance. At the time, the token was projected to launch in late 2025 or early 2026.

Japan prepares to issue stablecoin in Q3

Japan is also set to approve its first stablecoin, with its Financial Services Agency preparing to greenlight the issuance of a Japanese yen-denominated digital currency as early as this fall.

According to a Sunday report from Japanese news outlet the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Tokyo-based fintech firm JPYC will spearhead the initiative, aiming to maintain a fixed value of one JPY per Japanese yen, backed by liquid assets like bank deposits and Japanese government bonds.

Tokens will be issued to digital wallets via bank transfer after purchase applications from individuals or corporations. The company plans to register as a money transfer business within the month.

Gemini, Winklevoss twins file for Nasdaq listing

Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has formally filed to go public with plans for a Nasdaq listing under the ticker GEMI. Founded in 2014, the company says it has processed US$285 billion in lifetime trading volume, with custodies of over US$18 billion in digital assets as of June 30.

Its registration statement does not specify how many shares will be offered or at what price range.

In the filing, the Winklevoss twins said crypto is entering “a new Golden Age,” emphasizing their vision of financial markets moving increasingly on-chain. They describe Gemini as a “super app” for digital assets, offering trading, custody and broader crypto financial services under one platform.

If successful, Gemini would join Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) as one of the few US exchanges to list publicly, offering investors direct equity exposure to crypto market infrastructure.

Amdax unveils Bitcoin treasury firm, plans Euronext Amsterdam listing

Amsterdam-based Amdax announced plans to list a new Bitcoin treasury firm, Amsterdam Bitcoin Treasury Strategy (AMBTS), on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange.

The company said the goal is to create a vehicle that holds Bitcoin long term on behalf of institutional and private investors, reflecting growing corporate adoption of digital reserves.

CEO Lucas Wensing noted that more than 10 percent of Bitcoin’s supply is already held by corporations, governments and institutions, suggesting a structural shift in how the asset is used.

Bitcoin’s rally of 32 percent in 2025, alongside pro-crypto regulatory momentum following Trump’s election, has reinforced the case for such vehicles. AMBTS plans to raise capital in a private round before listing, with a long-term target of accumulating at least 1 percent of total Bitcoin supply.

The move could make Euronext Amsterdam a more prominent hub for European digital asset investment products, challenging London and Frankfurt.

1. Mexico

Silver production: 6,300 metric tons

Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer with production of 6,300 metric tons of the precious metal in 2024, nearly double second-place China.

Silver has been an important commodity for the country for hundreds of years, with evidence of trade dating back to the 1500s. In 2024, the mining sector in Mexico contributed $312.46 billion pesos to the Mexican economy, and silver alone made up $68.24 billion pesos of that total.

The states of Zacatecas, Durango and Chihuahua account for 80 percent of the country’s total output of the metal. The country’s largest silver mine is Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) Penasquito mine in Zacatecas. In 2024, the mine produced 33 million ounces (935.5 metric tons) of silver and is expected to deliver more than 28 million ounces in 2025.

Mexico is also home to Fresnillo (LSE:FRES), the world’s largest silver producer. In 2024, the company produced 56.3 million ounces (1,496 metric tons) of silver between its mines, which are all located in the country.

2. China

Silver production: 3,300 metric tons

China produced 3,300 metric tons of silver in 2024, a decline from the 3,400 metric tons it produced in 2023. According to Shanghai Metal Market (SMM), the drop off is part of a longer trend that is owed to lower silver grades as older mines begin to deplete reserves of the metal.

Most silver is produced as a byproduct metal from the mining of lead, copper, zinc and gold. Of the few silver primary operations in the country, Silvercorp Metals’ (TSX:SVM,NYSEAMERICAN:SVM) Ying mining district is the largest, hosting seven underground mines and two processing plants.

In its fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, the Ying mining district produced 6.95 million ounces (197 metric tons) of silver, up 17 percent year-over-year. The increase was supported in part by an extension to the number two mill in November 2024.

3. Peru

Silver production: 3,100 metric tons

Peru produced 3,100 metric tons of silver in 2024, making it the world’s third largest silver country. Its 2024 production was down from 3,200 metric tons in 2023, in part due to declining grades and social unrest.

Overall, the mining industry plays a significant role in the Peruvian economy, accounting for 9.5 percent of its GDP. In 2024, total mineral exports from the country were tallied at US$49 billion, with copper making up more than half of the value of trade and silver accounting for approximately US$1.3 billion.

Silver production in Peru is primarily a byproduct of copper mining. The largest operation in the country is the Antamina mine, a joint venture between BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP), Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Teck (TSX:TECK.B,TSX:TECK.A,NYSE:TECK) and Mitsubishi (TSE:8058). In 2024, the mine produced 11.36 million ounces of silver.

4. Bolivia

Silver production: 1,300 metric tons

Bolivia’s silver production totaled 1,300 metric tons in 2024, a slight decline from 2023’s 1,350 metric tons, tying it with Poland for the fourth highest silver producing country. The resource industry makes up a substantial portion of Bolivia’s exports. Silver exports alone generated US$1.2 billion for Bolivia’s economy in 2024.

Bolivia’s largest mine is the San Cristóbal silver-lead-zinc mine in Potosí, which produced 16.8 million ounces of silver in 2024, up 33 percent year-over-year. Private company San Cristobal Mining acquired the mine from Sumitomo (TSE:8053) in early 2023.

Another significant silver operation in Bolivia is Andean Precious Metals’ (TSXV:APM,OTCQX:ANPMF) San Bartolomé silver-gold operation. San Bartolomé’s production has steadily decreased from 5.47 million ounces in 2020 to 4.32 million ounces in 2024, during which time it transitioned from mining to processing material from its fines disposal facility and third parties.

4. Poland

Silver production: 1,300 metric tons

Silver production in Poland was 1,300 metric tons in 2024, just below the 1,320 metric tons it registered the previous year. While its output comes in significantly below the top three silver countries, Poland holds the world’s third highest silver reserves at 61,100 metric tons.

In total, the mining sector accounts for 7 percent of Poland’s GDP. In 2024, silver exports rose to 1,328.27 metric tons from 1,256.25 metric tons in 2023 and represented a value of US$1.2 billion.

KGHM Polska Miedz (FWB:KGHA) is Poland’s top silver company and one of the world’s top silver producers, producing the metal as a by-product at its Polish copper mines, including the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine. According to the World Silver Survey, KGHM produced 1,341 metric tons of silver in 2024 between its Polish and international operations.

6. Chile

Silver production: 1,200 metric tons

Chile produced 1,200 metric tons of silver in 2024, down from the 1,260 metric tons in 2023.

Mining is a significant contributor to the Chilean economy. In 2024, the sector accounted for 14 percent of the nation’s GDP and was a driving force behind the country’s overall 5.6 percent growth rate.

With 85 percent of Chilean silver output coming as a byproduct of copper mining, declines in recent years have been owed to production issues and low prices in the copper sector. According to Reuters, copper output from state-run mining company Codelco fell to a 25 year low in 2023 and struggled to recover.

At Chuquicamata, one of the company’s largest operations, silver production gradually declined from its peak of 10.91 million ounces in 2019 to 8.14 million ounces in 2023, before plunging to 5.7 million ounces in 2024.

6. Russia

Silver production: 1,200 metric tons

Russia produced 1,200 metric tons of silver in 2024, a slight decrease from the 1,240 metric tons it produced the previous year.

Mangazeya Plus is the country’s largest silver producer from its portfolio of mines in the country, including its largest silver operation, the Dukat mine, which produced an estimated 7.7 million ounces of silver in 2023.

Prior to 2024, the owner of these assets was Kazakhstan-based Polymetal International, now named Solidcore Resources. However, due to operational challenges associated with sanctions against Russian metals exports, the company sold all of its Russian mining assets to Mangazeya Plus.

8. United States

Silver production: 1,100 metric tons

The United States produced 1,100 metric tons of silver in 2024, an increase from the 1,020 metric tons mined the previous year. Silver is mined in 12 states, with Alaska and Idaho topping the list of regional producers.

Production of silver came from four silver-primary mines, with additional amounts produced as a byproduct of gold and base metals at 31 other operations.

The largest silver operation in the United States is Hecla Mining’s (NYSE:HL) Greens Creek silver mine in Southern Alaska. In 2024, the mine produced 8.48 million ounces (240 metric tons) of silver, as well as several other metals as by-products of its silver operations.

In terms of economic contribution, silver contributed US$960 million to the US economy in 2024, with the majority of the metal destined for domestic markets, with just 140 metric tons being exported.

9. Australia

Silver production: 1,000 metric tons

Australia produced 1,000 metric tons in 2024, just 30 metric tons fewer than registered in 2023.

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, mining holds the largest share of the nation’s GDP with 12.2 percent, and resources make up 59.2 percent of the country’s total exports. However, like the United States, the majority of silver is used domestically for manufacturing and investment.

Australian silver production also comes as a byproduct of mining other metals like gold, copper and other base metals. South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF) Cannington lead-silver-zinc mine is by far the largest silver operation in Australia, producing 12.67 million ounces of silver in 2024.

9. Kazakhstan

Silver production: 1,000 metric tons

Kazakhstan produced 1,000 metric tons of silver in 2024, up from 985 metric tons in 2023. Output in the country has risen significantly since 2020, when it produced just 435 metric tons of the precious metal.

The largest silver mining operation in the country is the Kazzinc Complex, a 70/30 joint venture between Glencore and the state-run Tau-Ken Samruk. In 2024, the mine produced 3.34 million ounces of silver, a sizable increase from the 2.73 million ounces produced in 2023.

Overall, the mining sector’s contribution to the Kazakh economy has exploded in recent years. According to the USGS Kazakhstan 2022 Mineral Yearbook released in March 2025, mineral exports were pegged at US$84.6 billion in 2022, a 40.2 percent increase compared to 2021 and 68 percent of the country’s total exports.

Focused on unlocking West Africa’s untapped mineral potential, Kobo Resources (TSXV:KRI) is advancing its flagship Kossou Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire. Strategically located next to Perseus Mining’s (TSX:PRU) producing Yaouré Gold Mine, Kossou benefits from access to infrastructure, skilled local labor, and strong logistical advantages.

Kobo’s value proposition rests on a seasoned leadership team and backing from strategic partner Luso Global Mining, part of engineering giant Mota-Engil. Beyond capital, this partnership provides access to world-class mining expertise. With a phased exploration strategy, Kobo is advancing near-term catalysts—including updated technical reports, metallurgical studies, and a 2025 drill campaign aimed at delivering a maiden resource in 2026.

The Kossou Gold Project (KGP) is Kobo Resources’ flagship asset in Côte d’Ivoire, located 40 km from Yamoussoukro and adjacent to Perseus Mining’s producing Yaouré Gold Mine. Covering 110 sq. km within the prolific Birimian greenstone belt, Kossou benefits from excellent infrastructure, logistical advantages, and strong exploration potential in one of West Africa’s fastest-growing mining jurisdictions.

Company Highlights

• Mining-friendly and Underexplored Location – Côte d’Ivoire’s gold production has grown significantly but still trails neighboring countries.
• Prime Location with Infrastructure Advantage – The Kossou Gold Project (KGP) is 40 km from Yamoussoukro and 9.5 km from a major operating gold mine.
• Proven Gold Discoveries with Strike Continuity – 24,471 m drilled at KGP with multiple mineralized zones that remain open along strike and depth.
• Promising Secondary Project – Kotobi gold project offers early-stage exploration upside in a highly prospective greenstone belt.
• Aggressive Growth and Near-term Milestones – +/- 20,000 m 2025 drill program targeting priority zones and advancing toward a potential MRE in 2026 with a strong project pipeline.
• Strong Team and Strategic Backing – Decades of exploration success combined with a strategic partnership with Luso Global Mining (Mota-Engil).

This Kobo Resources profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*

Click here to connect with Kobo Resources (TSXV:KRI) to receive an Investor Presentation

1. Australia

Usable iron ore: 930 million metric tons
Iron content: 580 million metric tons

Australia is the largest iron producing country by far, with usable iron ore production of 930 million metric tons in 2024. Australia’s leading iron ore producer is BHP Group (ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP,NYSE:BHP), and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and Fortescue (ASX:FMG,OTCQX:FSUMF) are also large iron producers.

The Pilbara region is the most notable iron ore jurisdiction in Australia, if not the world. In fact, Rio Tinto calls its Pilbara Blend ‘the world’s most recognised brand of iron ore.’ One of the company’s iron producing operations in the region is Hope Downs iron ore complex, a 50/50 joint venture with Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting. The complex hosts four open-pit mines with an annual production capacity of 47 million metric tons.

In June 2025, the partners announced a combined investment of US$1.6 billion to develop the Hope Downs 2 iron ore project, a part of the main JV. The project hosts the Hope Downs 2 and Bedded Hilltop deposits, which together will have a total annual production capacity of 31 million metric tons.

As for BHP, the major iron miner’s Western Australia Iron Operations joint venture comprise five mining hubs and four processing hubs. One such hub is Area C, which hosts eight open-cut mining areas alone. The company also has an operating 85 percent interest in the Newman iron operations.

2. Brazil

Usable iron ore: 440 million metric tons
Iron content: 280 million metric tons

In Brazil, iron production totaled 440 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2024.

The largest iron ore districts in the country are the states of Pará and Minas Gerais, which together account for 98 percent of Brazil’s annual iron ore output. Pará is home to the largest iron ore mine in the world, Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Carajas mine. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Vale is the world’s biggest producer of iron ore pellets.

Vale announced plans in February 2025 to make significant investments in increasing its production at Carajas by 13 percent through 2030.

3. China

Usable iron ore: 270 million metric tons
Iron content: 170 million metric tons

China’s iron production amounted to 270 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2024. The Asian nation is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, despite being the third largest iron-producing country.

China’s top producing iron ore mine is the Dataigou iron mine in Laioning province, with production of 9.07 million metric tons in 2023. The underground mine is owned by Glory Harvest Group Holdings.

With China being the world’s largest producer of stainless steel, its domestic supply is not enough to meet demand. The country imports over 75 percent of global seaborne iron ore as of mid-2025.

3. India

Usable iron ore: 270 million metric tons
Iron content: 170 million metric tons

India’s iron production for 2024 totaled 270 million metric tons of usable iron ore, tying for third place with China.

India’s largest iron ore miner, NMDC (NSE:NMDC), operates the Bailadila mining complexes in Chhattisgarh state and the Donimalai and Kumaraswamy mines in Karnataka state. NMDC hit a production milestone in 2021 of 40 million metric tons per year, the first such company to do so in the country. NMDC is targeting an annual production rate of 100 million metric tons by 2030.

5. Russia

Usable iron ore: 91 million metric tons
Iron content: 53 million metric tons

Russia’s iron ore production came in at 91 million metric tons in 2024, making it the fifth largest iron-producing country in the world.

The region of Belgorod Oblast is home to two of the country’s biggest iron ore producing mines: Metalloinvest’s Lebedinsky GOK, which in 2023 produced an estimated 22.05 million metric tons of iron ore; and Novolipetsk Steel’s Stoilensky GOK, which that same year produced an estimated 19.56 million metric tons of iron ore.

In response to serious economic sanctions on the country over its aggressive war against Ukraine, Russia’s iron ore exports fell dramatically in 2022 to 84.2 million metric tons from 96 million metric tons in the previous year. Together, these two countries previously accounted for 36 percent of global iron or non-alloy steel exports. The European Union has restricted imports of Russian iron ore.

Last year, imports of iron ore from Russia to the EU seemingly fell off a cliff, dropping from 332,300 tons to 9,360 tons.

6. Iran

Usable iron ore: 90 million metric tons
Iron content: 59 million metric tons

Iran surpassed 90 million metric tons in iron production in the form of usable iron ore in 2024. The country’s iron output has been on the rise in recent years — now in sixth place, it was the eighth highest iron producer in 2022 and the 10th in 2021.

One of Iran’s most important iron ore mines is Gol-e-Gohar in Kerman province, which is also the country’s top producer. During the March 2024 to January 2025 period, the country’s major mining companies’ combined iron pellet production reportedly increased by 7 percent year-over-year.

The country’s iron mines are supplying its steel industry, which produced 31 million MT of steel in 2024. In its 20 year roadmap released in 2005, the Iranian government set an annual steel production target of 55 million MT by 2025. To better meet the requirements of domestic steel producers, Iran began levying a 25 percent duty on iron ore exports in September 2019. The exact rate has changed multiple times since, and in February 2024 the country cut duties on these products significantly.

7. South Africa

Usable iron ore: 66 million metric tons
Iron content: 42 million metric tons

South Africa’s iron production was 66 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2024. The country’s output has declined significantly in the past few years, down from 73.1 million MT three years earlier. South Africa’s mining industry is grappling with transport and logistics issues, most notably due to railway maintenance challenges.

Kumba Iron Ore is Africa’s largest iron ore producer. The company has three main iron ore production assets in the country, including its flagship mine, Sishen, which accounts for a large majority of Kumba’s total iron ore output. Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTC Pink:AAUKF) owns a 69.7 percent share of the company.

8. Canada

Usable iron ore: 54 million metric tons
Iron content: 32 million metric tons

Canada’s iron production totaled 54 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2024. In June of that year, the Canadian government updated the nation’s Critical Minerals List ‘to include high-purity iron, citing the necessity of that mineral’s role in decarbonization throughout the steel supply chain,’ according to the USGS.

Champion Iron (TSX:CIA) is one company producing iron ore in Canada. It owns and operates the Bloom Lake complex in Québec. Champion Iron ships iron concentrate from the Bloom Lake open pit by rail, initially on the Bloom Lake Railway, to a ship loading port in Sept-Îles, Québec. A Phase 2 expansion, which entered commercial production in December 2022, increased annual capacity from 7.4 million metric tons to 15 million metric tons of 66.2 percent iron ore concentrate.

As of 2025, Champion is investing in upgrading half of its Bloom Lake mine capacity to a direct reduction quality pellet feed iron ore with up to 69 percent iron.

9. Ukraine

Usable iron ore: 42 million metric tons
Iron content: 26 million metric tons

Ukraine’s iron production for 2024 was 42 million metric tons of usable iron ore. The metal represents a key segment of the country’s economy. Metinvest and ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) are the leading producers of iron ore in the nation.

Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine’s iron ore mining industry has proved as resilient as the people, even though there have been temporary shutdowns. However, 2025 looks to be turning into a particularly hard year. In the January through April period, iron ore exports decreased by 20.9 percent in value terms and by 10.2 percent in physical volumes year-over-year. GMK Center predicted in May that by the end of this year, ‘Ukraine’s iron ore exports will decline by about 20% y/y to 27 million tons from 33.6 million tons in 2024.’

10. Kazakhstan

Usable iron ore: 30 million metric tons
Iron content: 9.2 million metric tons

Kazakhstan’s iron production came in at 30 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2024.

Kazakhstan has several iron ore mines in operation, with four of the top five owned by Eurasian Resources Group. The largest of these iron ore mines is the Sokolovsky surface and underground mine located in Kostanay. In 2023, it produced an estimated 7.52 million tonnes per annum of iron ore.

The Sokolov-Sarybai Mining Production Association (SMPA) in Northern Kazakhstan was the main supplier of iron ore to Russia’s Magnitogorsk Iron and Steelworks prior to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the SMPA has halted iron ore shipments to Magnitogorsk.

Graphite prices hit multi-year lows

Caught in the cross hairs of tariff troubles between US and China, graphite prices fell to their lowest levels since 2018, according to Fastmarkets.

In January, The US Department of Commerce officially launched anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations into imports of active anode material from China, following petitions filed by the American Active Anode Material Producers (AAMP) in mid-December 2024.

These probes stem from concerns that Chinese producers are unfairly undercutting domestic manufacturers through subsidized or dumped pricing.

“The new antidumping and countervailing duty investigation on active anode imports from China demonstrates that the anode production is the most challenging part of the battery supply chain for the US to compete with China,” wrote Fastmarkets Georgi Georgiev in a February report.

He added: “The existing 25 percent tariff has had limited impact on anode imports from China, demonstrating that currently Chinese anode makers remain the cornerstone of global anode supply chains.”

In May, the Department of Commerce issued an affirmative preliminary finding in its countervailing duty probe, identifying subsidy rates as high as 721 percent for some producers, while others faced rates near 6.55 percent.

In the related anti-dumping investigation, a July 17 preliminary determination confirmed dumping, and a provisional 93.5 percent duty was imposed.

If both Commerce and the US International Trade Commission deliver final affirmative decisions, steep duties could be imposed as soon as fall 2025 and remain in place for at least five years.

Supply and demand woes intensify

Despite natural graphite mined supply growing year over year from 2020’s 966,000 metric tons to 1,600,000 metric tons in 2024, concerns abound about future supply.

“Rare earth elements appear to be sufficiently supplied in 2035 based on the project pipeline. However, supply concentration for rare earths and graphite remains a key vulnerability,” a recent IEA report read.

The energy oversight agency expects graphite demand to double between now and 2040, driven by an uptick in eclectic vehicle demand.

To ensure ample supply is available, the IEA recommends broad growth outside of China up and down the supply chain.

“Diversification is the watchword for energy security, but the critical minerals world has moved in the opposite direction in recent years, particularly in refining and processing. Between 2020 and 2024, growth in refined material production was heavily concentrated among the leading suppliers,” it read.

Refining capacity for critical minerals has become increasingly concentrated, with graphite among the most affected. By 2024, the top three refining nations controlled an average of 86 percent of global output for key energy minerals, up from about 82 percent in 2020.

In graphite’s case, China dominates the sector, accounting for nearly all recent supply growth, a trend mirrored by Indonesia in nickel and China again in cobalt and rare earths.Despite China’s stronghold of the market, the IEA sees that weakening over the next decade.

“There is some diversification emerging in the mining of lithium, graphite and rare earth elements. The share of mined lithium supply from the top three producers is set to fall below 70 percent by 2035, down from over 75 percent in 2024,” the IEA states. “ Graphite and rare earth elements also see some improvement as new mining suppliers emerge over the next decade – Madagascar and Mozambique for graphite and Australia for rare earths.”

While mine supply diversification is a positive first step, growth in refinement and processing capacity is unlikely to see the same ex-China growth trends.

The IEA expects refining capacity for critical minerals to remain heavily concentrated well into the next decade, with graphite among the most tightly controlled.

Although some diversification is emerging for lithium and select minerals, China’s dominance shows little sign of waning. By 2035, the country is projected to supply roughly 80 percent of the world’s battery-grade graphite, alongside similar market shares in rare earths, and more than 60 percent of refined lithium and cobalt.

Tariff battle shakes anode supply chain

To counter China’s control the US is moving aggressively to curb reliance on Chinese graphite anodes, which account for more than 95 percent of global anode output.

Since June 2024, tariffs on Chinese synthetic graphite anodes have risen from zero to 160 percent — including the existing 25 percent Section 301 tariff and additional levies. North American producers have petitioned for duties as high as 920 percent.

Chinese producers initially absorbed much of the cost of early tariffs, but analysts expect they will pass more of the recent increases on to buyers.

US automakers and battery makers are bracing for higher costs, with trade data showing that all US graphite anode imports for the EV sector came from China in 2024.

China has responded with its own 84 percent import tariff on US petroleum coke and needle coke. While China has reduced reliance on US supply, it still sources about 30 percent of each from American producers, meaning higher costs for Chinese synthetic graphite and downstream anode products.

“US electric vehicle and battery producers have battled in recent years to keep US imports of graphite anodes from China tariff-free, but their efforts have proved futile over the past nine months and the trade status of graphite anodes has shifted dramatically,” Amy Bennett, principal consultant of metals and mining at Fastmarkets wrote in a May market report.

Fragility of supply

Global demand for battery-grade graphite is projected to surge by 600 percent over the next decade as the energy transition and electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerate.

Yet, at today’s depressed prices, developing new supply outside China remains economically unviable — a challenge that’s fueling a looming supply crunch.

The US, which mines no natural graphite, was entirely dependent on imports to meet domestic demand in 2024, according to the US Geological Survey, leaving it and other non-China markets in a vulnerable position.

History offers a cautionary precedent: in 2010, rare earth prices spiked tenfold after China restricted exports.

Should a similar disruption hit lithium, nickel or graphite, prices could surge five to ten times, pushing average global battery pack costs up by 20 to 50 percent, the IEA warns.

Such a jump would erode EV affordability, slow adoption and threaten the pace of the clean energy transition.