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After spiking above US$20,000 per metric ton in May 2024, nickel prices have experienced a downward trend, mainly remaining in the US$15,000 to US$16,000 range.

Indonesia’s elevated production levels have been a primary factor contributing to low commodity prices, as sustained high output continues to oversupply the market. The supply surplus has had a knock-on effect, putting pressure on Western producers who have been forced to slash their production to maintain profitability.

Elevated output coincides with electric vehicle (EV) demand, which is under threat as market uptake has slowed, and policy changes in the United States are expected to increase costs for consumers and lower sentiment for the vehicles.

Nickel sinks to 2020 lows

Commodity prices crashed at the start of the quarter, with nickel falling to a five-year low, reaching US$14,150 per metric ton on April 8. However, prices quickly recovered from the rout and reached US$15,880 on April 24.

The end of April saw the price once again retreat to US$15,230 as downward trend indications began to take hold. The price through May was largely rangebound, starting the month rising to US$15,850 on May 9 before collapsing again to US$15,085 on May 27.

Nickel price chart, April 01 to July 24, 2025

via TradingEconomics

June started with a short-lived rebound to US$15,510 on June 2, before falling to below the US$15,000 mark to reach US$14,840 on June 24. Since then, the price experienced some upward momentum, reaching US$15,575 on July 23.

Supply surplus causing price pressures

In a presentation at the Indonesian Mining Conference on June 30, Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics at the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) outlined the current state of the nickel market.

He suggested that high output from Indonesian miners continued to exert downward price pressures on nickel over the last several years, resulting in a decline from an average price of US$30,425 per metric ton in 2022 to an average of US$15,000 per metric ton during the first five months of 2025.

Meanwhile, combined inventories on the London Metals Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have exploded from 38,200 metric tons at the end of May 2023 to 230,600 metric tons at the end of April 2025.

This coincides with a 15.1 percent increase in global nickel production in 2023 and a 2.3 percent increase in 2024. The expectation is that nickel output will surge an additional 8.5 percent in 2025, with a significant portion to come from Indonesia, whose share is forecast to grow to 63.4 percent from 61.6 percent in the previous year.

The demand outlook

However, demand has not kept pace with the increase in production. Ferreira stated that demand increased by 7.8 percent in 2023, 4.8 percent in 2024, and is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in 2025.

Stainless steel has been the primary driver of nickel demand for decades. Still, Olivier Masson, Principal Analyst for Battery Raw Materials at Fastmarkets, predicts a changing demand landscape over the next couple of years.

During his CAM Minerals Market Forecast at the Fastmarkets LBRM Las Vegas conference on June 22 to 25, Masson provided insight into why he believes the current oversupply situation will begin to shift by 2027.

Currently, nickel’s primary demand driver is in the production of stainless steel, accounting for just over 2 million metric tons per year. However, the expectation is that between now and 2035, total demand for nickel will increase by 2 million tons, with stainless production accounting for just 564,000 metric tons. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2 percent.

“We expect to see more end-of-life scrap being generated within China, and then that should start slowing down the growth requirements for primary nickel in the Chinese stainless-steel industry,” Masson explained.

The remaining demand is predicted to come from a 12.8 percent, or 1.4 million metric ton, increase from the EV sector.

“Most of this growth will come from pure EV, so pure battery electric vehicles, where we expect sales growth of over 30 million vehicles… But we still expect an increase in plug-in hybrids with an additional 11.5 million vehicle sales over the next decade,” Masson said.

He went on to say that over that time, supply is expected to grow at a slower rate, with the majority owed to increases in nickel sulphate destined for battery manufacturing.

“So what does that mean for the balance for the nickel market? Well, the nickel market has been oversupplied for the past couple of years. We expect that to continue this year and for the next few years. So we are in a state of structural oversupply. That said, its only by around 2027 or 2028 that we think the market will start to return to a semblance of Balance,” Masson explained

In the long term, he stated that an additional 750,000 metric tons will be needed by 2035, which he doesn’t see as a significant problem.

Production curtailments continue

With the market currently experiencing a supply glut, more producers have taken to curtailing production or shuttering operations.

Since 2024, there have been closures of significant operations, including First Quantum’s (TSX:FM,OTC:FQVLF) Ravensthorpe and Panoramic Resources’ Savannah operations in Australia and Glencore’s (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF,OTC:GLCNF) Koniambo Nickel mine in New Caledonia.

Likewise, Refiners have also been under pressure as BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP,OTC:BHPLF) suspended operations at its Nickel West refinery in Australia until 2027, and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) repurposed its Sandouville nickel refinery in France to produce precursor cathode active material during the first half of 2025.

According to INSG data, 32 percent of global nickel production lines are currently offline.

One of the few companies to buck the trend was Vale (NYSE:VALE), which announced a 44 percent year-over-year increase in nickel production in its Q2 2025 report released on July 22. The report indicated that nickel output rose to 40,300 metric tons from 27,900 during the same quarter last year. The company said gains were driven by strong performance from its Canadian assets and the Onca Puma mine in Brazil.

While there was some speculation that Indonesia may reduce its output, no cuts have materialized, which has in part led Australian investment bank Macquarie to downgrade its nickel outlook to US$14,500 per metric ton by the end of the year, from the US$15,500 it predicted at the end of Q1.

The impact of trade uncertainty

Base metals were caught up as part of the fallout from Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2. The move applied a 10 percent across-the-board baseline tariff to all but a handful of countries and threatened to impose more significant retaliatory tariffs starting on April 9.

However, a steep US$6.6 trillion sell-off in equity markets and a squeeze in the bond market that sent yields for 10-year Treasuries up more than half a percent caused the US administration to walk back its plans. Instead, it announced a 90-day pause on the higher tariff rate and stated that it would work to negotiate new trade agreements.

The commodity price rout came as more analysts began to speculate about a recession later in 2025, which would reduce consumer spending on steel-dependent goods, such as light vehicles and new home builds.

In statements made during S&P Global’s State of the Market: Mining Q1’ 25 webinar on May 14, Naditha Manubag, Associate Research Analyst of Metals and Mining Research, suggested that nickel is likely to experience headwinds from the evolving trade policy in the United States.

“We expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term as the Trump administration’s trade policies continue to evolve. Forecast for 2025 global primary nickel demand is lowered to 2.8 percent year-over-year due to the expected slowdown in global economic activity,” she said.

Manubag said the slowdown would have a negative impact on demand for Chinese consumer goods, which would come alongside a rising Indonesian mining quota in 2025. Although prices spiked in March, she explained that it was due to tight supplies from the rainy season and increased royalty rates.

Manubag suggested that S&P’s overall expectation is that the nickel market will be in a surplus of 198,000 metric tons in 2025. As a result, the organization has lowered its nickel price forecast to US$15,730 per metric ton.

It’s more than just US tariffs that are expected to weigh on nickel prices in the short term. When Donald Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful” spending bill into law on July 4, it marked an end to the federal EV tax credit and other tax credits aimed at expanding charging infrastructure, a cornerstone of the Inflation Reduction Act.

The consumer credit was meant to provide a US$7,500 rebate toward the purchase of new EVs, and is expected to have an impact on overall demand when it expires on September 30.

Although the majority of nickel’s demand comes from the production of stainless steel, the growing demand from EV battery production has provided additional tailwinds; however, a decline in EV demand could impact future demand growth.

“If and when this bill is passed, a slowdown of EV uptake is expected to lead to higher EV prices and slower rollout of charging infrastructure,” Manubag said.

The big picture for investors

Currently, the easiest way to sum up the nickel market is that it’s widely disliked. The fundamentals aren’t there. A significant portion of nickel is being produced at a loss.

“You know, nickel is hated right now. I think there’s a decent case for nickel, just like when we went into platinum, right? Platinum did nothing for a decade; it just hung around US$900 to US$1,000, and now we’ve finally broken out… You have no idea when, but buy it when it’s boring. At US$900, no one cares, and then you get to ride the wave up. So I think that would be it. Pay attention to what’s unloved and hated and buy that,” he said.

Others in the investment community have expressed a similar sentiment. Although fundamentals for nickel are currently lacklustre, demand, especially from the automotive sector, is expected to grow over the next 10 years.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

‘The uranium story itself is finally getting better… the near perfect storm is here.’ he said, noting that all the factors that should drive electrical demand higher are merging, particularly electrification and AI data center needs.

‘I don’t think uranium has to go to US$200 in order to make money,” said Grandich. I just think it needs to go back to where it was a couple years ago, a little above US$100 and these stocks will quadruple.’

Watch the interview above for more from Grandich on the energy sector and gold’s 2025 performance.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Samsung Electronics has entered into a $16.5 billion contract for supplying semiconductors to Tesla, based on a regulatory filing by the South Korean firm and Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s posts on X.

The memory chipmaker, which had not named the counterparty, mentioned in its filing that the effective start date of the contract was July 26, 2025 — receipt of orders — and its end date was Dec. 31, 2033.

However, Musk later confirmed in a reply to a post on social media platform X that Tesla was the counterparty.

He also posted: “Samsung’s giant new Texas fab will be dedicated to making Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chip. The strategic importance of this is hard to overstate. Samsung currently makes AI4.TSMC will make AI5, which just finished design, initially in Taiwan and then Arizona.”

“Samsung agreed to allow Tesla to assist in maximizing manufacturing efficiency. This is a critical point, as I will walk the line personally to accelerate the pace of progress,” Musk said on X, and suggested that the deal with Samsung could likely be even larger than the announced $16.5 billion.

Samsung earlier said that details of the deal, including the name of the counterparty, will not be disclosed until the end of 2033, citing a request from the second party “to protect trade secrets,” according to a Google translation of the filing in Korean on Monday.

“Since the main contents of the contract have not been disclosed due to the need to maintain business confidentiality, investors are advised to invest carefully considering the possibility of changes or termination of the contract,” the company said.

The company’s shares rose over 6% in trading on Monday to reach their highest level since September 2024.

Tesla was a probable customer, Ray Wang, research director of semiconductors, supply chain and emerging technology at The Futurum Group, told CNBC before Musk’s post. Bloomberg News had earlier reported that Samsung’s deal was with Tesla, citing a source.

Samsung’s foundry service manufactures chips based on designs provided by other companies. It is the second largest provider of foundry services globally, behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

The company stated in April that it aimed to commence 2 nanometer mass production in its foundry business and secure major orders for the next-generation technology. In semiconductor technology, smaller nanometer sizes signify more compact transistor designs, which lead to greater processing power and efficiency.

Local South Korean media outlets have also reported that American chip firm Qualcomm could place an order for chips manufactured using Samsung’s 2 nanometer technology.

Samsung, which is set to deliver earnings on Thursday, expects its second-quarter profit to more than halve. An analyst previously told CNBC that the disappointing forecast was due to weak orders for its foundry business and as the company has struggled to capture AI demand for its memory business.

The company has fallen behind competitors SK Hynix and Micron in high-bandwidth memory chips — an advanced type of memory used in AI chipsets.

SK Hynix, the leader in HBM, has become the main supplier of these chips to American AI behemoth Nvidia. While Samsung has reportedly been working to get the latest version of its HBM chips certified by Nvidia, a report from a local outlet suggests these plans have been pushed back to at least September.

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After spiraling from crisis to crisis over much of the past seven years, Boeing is stabilizing under CEO Kelly Ortberg’s leadership.

Ortberg, a longtime aerospace executive and an engineer whom the manufacturer plucked from retirement to fix the problem-addled company last year, is set this week to outline significant progress since he took the helm a year ago. Boeing reports quarterly results and gives its outlook on Tuesday.

So far, investors are liking what they’ve been seeing. Shares of the company are up more than 30% so far this year.

Wall Street analysts expect the aircraft manufacturer to halve its second-quarter losses from a year ago when it reports. Ortberg told investors in May that the manufacturer expects to generate cash in the second half of the year. Boeing’s aircraft production has increased, and its airplane deliveries just hit the highest level in 18 months.

It’s a shift for Boeing, whose successive leaders missed targets on aircraft delivery schedules, certifications, financial goals and culture changes that frustrated investors and customers alike, while rival Airbus pulled ahead.

“The general agreement is that the culture is changing after decades of self-inflicted knife wounds,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace consulting firm.

Analysts expect the company to post its first annual profit since 2018 next year.

“When he got the job, I was not anywhere as near as optimistic as today,” said Douglas Harned, senior aerospace and defense analyst at Bernstein.

Ortberg’s work was already cut out for him, but the challenges multiplied when he arrived.

As the company hemorrhaged cash, Ortberg announced massive cost cuts, including laying off 10% of the company. Its machinists who make the majority of its airplanes went on strike for seven weeks until the company and the workers’ union signed a new labor deal. Ortberg also oversaw a more than $20 billion capital raise last fall, replaced the head of the defense unit and sold off its Jeppesen navigation business.

Ortberg bought a house in the Seattle area, where Boeing makes most of its planes, shortly after taking the job last August, and his presence has been positive, aerospace analysts have said.

“He’s showing up,” Aboulafia said. “You show up, you talk to people.”

Boeing declined to make Ortberg available for an interview.

Boeing’s leaders hoped for a turnaround year in 2024. But five days in, a door-plug blew out of a nearly new Boeing 737 Max 9 as it climbed out of Portland. The almost-catastrophe brought Boeing a production slowdown, renewed Federal Aviation Administration scrutiny and billions in cash burn.

Key bolts were left off the plane before it was delivered to Alaska Airlines. It was the latest in a series of quality problems at Boeing, where other defects have required time-consuming reworking.

Boeing had already been reeling from two deadly Max crashes in 2018 and 2019 that sullied the reputation of America’s largest exporter. The company in May reached an agreement with the Justice Department to avoid prosecution stemming from a battle over a previous criminal conspiracy charge tied to the crashes. Victims’ family members slammed the deal when it was announced.

For years, executives at top Boeing airline customers complained publicly about the manufacturer and its leadership as they grappled with delays. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary told investors in May 2022 that management needed a “reboot or boot up the arse.”

Last week, O’Leary had a different tune.

“I continue to believe Kelly Ortberg, [and Boeing Commercial Airplane unit CEO] Stephanie Pope are doing a great job,” he said on an earnings call. “I mean, there is no doubt that the quality of what is being produced, the hulls in Wichita and the aircraft in Seattle has dramatically improved.”

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby cast doubt over the Boeing 737 Max 10 after the January 2024 door-plug accident, as the carrier prepared not to have that aircraft in its fleet plan. The plane is still not certified, but Kirby has said Boeing has been more predictability on airplane deliveries.

Still, delays for the Max 10, the largest of the Max family, and the yet-to-be certified Max 7, the smallest, are a headache for customers, especially since having too few or too many seats on a flight can determine profitability for airlines.

“They’re working the right problems. The consistency of deliveries is much better,” Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan said in an interview last month. “But there’s no update on the Max 7. We’re assuming we are not flying it in 2026.”

Boeing under Ortberg still has much to fix.

The FAA capped Boeing’s production at 38 Maxes a month, a rate that it has reached. To go beyond that, to a target of 42, Boeing will need the FAA’s blessing.

Ortberg said this year that the company is stabilizing to go beyond that rate. Manufacturers get paid when aircraft are delivered, so higher production is key.

“I would suspect they would be having those discussions very soon,” Harned said. “It’s 47 [a month] that I think is the challenging break.”

He added that Boeing has a lot of inventory on hand to help increase production.

Its defense unit has also suffered. The defense unit encompasses programs like the KC-46 tanker program and Air Force One, which has drawn public ire from President Donald Trump. Trump, frustrated with delays on the two new jets meant to serve the president, turned to a used Qatari Boeing 747 to potentially use as a presidential aircraft, though insiders say that used plane could require months of reoutfitting.

Ortberg replaced the head of that unit last fall.

A strike could also be on the horizon at the defense unit after factory workers “overwhelmingly” rejected a new labor deal, according to their union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 837.

“The proposal from Boeing Defense fell short of addressing the priorities and sacrifices of the skilled IAM Union workforce,” the union said Sunday. “Our members are standing together to demand a contract that respects their work and ensures a secure future.”

There is a seven-day cooling off period before a strike would begin, if a new deal isn’t reached.

“They’re not totally out of the woods,” Harned said.

Boeing and Ortberg also need to start thinking about a new jet, some industry members said. Its best-selling 737 first debuted in 1967, and the company was looking at a midsize jetliner before the two crashes sent its attention elsewhere.

“Already there’s been a reversal from ‘read my lips, no new jet.’ I would like to see that accelerate,” Aboulafia said. “He is the guy to make that happen.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS