After a blistering snapback rally over last the week, a number of the Magnificent 7 stocks are actively testing their 200-day moving averages.  Let’s look at how three of these leading growth names are setting up from a technical perspective, and see how this week could provide crucial clues to broader market conditions into April.

META Remains Above an Upward-Sloping 200-Day

While most of the Mag 7 names already broke below their 200-day moving averages, Meta Platforms (META) is one of the few that have remained above this key trend indicator.  We can see a very straightforward downtrend of lower lows and lower highs from the mid-February peak around $740 to last week’s low around $575.

With the recent bounce, META has now established clear support at the 200-day as well as the December 2024 swing low.  This “confluence of support” suggests that a break below $575 would confirm a new downtrend phase for this leading internet stock.  Only if we saw a break back above the 50-day moving average around $650 would we consider an alternative bullish scenario here.

Will AMZN Hold This Long-Term Trend Barometer?

While META is still holding its 200-day moving average, Amazon.com (AMZN) broke below its 200-day back in early March.  The recent bounce off $190 has pushed AMZN back above the 200-day this week, with the Monday and Friday lows sitting almost perfectly on this long-term trend indicator.

The most important question here is whether Amazon will be able to hold above its 200-day, but given the meager momentum readings, a failure here seems more likely.  Note how despite the recent uptrend move, the RSI has remained below the 50 level through mid-week.  This lack of upside momentum indicates a lack of willing buyers, and suggests a breakout here as an unlikely outcome.  

Similar to the chart of META, we’re watching for any move above the 50-day moving average, which would tell us to consider the recent upswing to have further upside potential.  

Failure Here Would Signal Renewed Weakness for TSLA

Now we come to one of the weaker charts out of the mega cap growth names, Tesla Inc. (TSLA).  Tesla lost over half its value from a peak around $480 in mid-December 2024 to its March 2025 low around $220.  This week’s pop higher has pushed TSLA right up to the 200-day moving average, but no further.

Tesla was one of the first Magnificent 7 stocks to set a peak, as many of these growth names continued to make higher highs into early 2025.  TSLA finally registered an oversold condition for the RSI in late February, before a bounce in mid-March which pushed the RSI back above the crucial 30 level.

When a stock fails to break above the 200-day moving average, as we see so far this week for Tesla, it means that there just isn’t enough buying power present to reverse the longer-term downtrend phase.  Until and unless TSLA can push above the 200-day, we’d much rather look for opportunities elsewhere.  

As legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones is quoted, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.”  Given the recent upswings for these key growth stocks, and their current tests of this long-term trend barometer, investors should be prepared for a failure at the 200-day and brace for what could come next for the Magnificent 7.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Gold at $3,100 and silver at $50? That might’ve sounded wild a year or two ago, but it’s now the upper trajectory some analysts are eyeing. With consumer confidence cratering to a 12-year low, inflation expectations rising, and central banks hoarding bullion like it’s the latest fashion, gold is holding firm above $3,000 per ounce and silver is knocking on $34.

There’s another thing to consider: the gold-to-silver ratio is still high, reaching 91:1 on Monday and 89.7 on Tuesday, hinting that silver may be massively undervalued. If the ratio snaps back to historical norms, silver could explode past $40, even $50, while gold edges toward $3,100 or higher.

FIGURE 1. CHART OF GOLD/SILVER RATIO. The historical average is at 65:1, well below the data on the chart. Any level above 87 signals a potential buying opportunity.

Note how the price of silver, namely its rallies highlighted in the shaded area below the chart, is responding to the ratio. I’m going to cover this in more detail below, as the ratio serves not only as guidance but also as an important component for an entry setup.

So, if analysts are targeting $3,100, where is gold now, and what setup might it present? Take a look at a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. Gold is pulling back, an ideal setup for those who are bullish on the yellow metal.

Gold has pulled back from its all-time high of $3,056, coinciding with an overbought reading in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Quadrant Lines give you a wide range of support levels for entry.

• The second quadrant, containing the previous swing high at $2,960, may see some bulls jumping in.
• Below that, the third and fourth quadrants coincide with the two previous swing lows near $2,890 and $2,840.

Staying within and bouncing from these quadrants could signal continued strength in the current swing. Below that level would indicate the end of the current uptrend, and whether the price reverses or falls into a range, you will likely find plenty of support at the two areas highlighted in magenta.

Next, take a look at a daily chart of silver.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. According to the gold/silver ratio, silver may be poised for another leg up.

Take a look at the green circles highlighting where the gold/silver ratio exceeded 89. These are relatively high levels, considering that the average ratio reading is between 65 to 75 depending on the historical average you’re measuring. As soon as the ratio falls below that level, silver tends to rally. You see this twice in January, plus once in February and March; now that the ratio has risen above this level once again, will silver rally in response? That’s the big question, and one you should keep focused on.

The $40–$50 target range that many analysts are eyeing is still a distance away. The RSI, holding above the 50 line, suggests there’s room for more upside before hitting overbought territory.

If you’re bullish on silver, hoping for it to reach the projected levels above $40 and toward $50, here’s what you should focus on:

• Silver would need to break above resistance levels at $34.25, the most recent swing high, and $34.75, which would see the grey metal enter its 12-year high territory, paving the way to $40 and above.
• If silver pulls back, it should stay above (ideally) $32.75 and $31.75.
• A close below $31.75, even if it finds support at the next swing low at $30.75, would signal weakness and likely invalidate the current uptrend.

What does this mean for investors using ETFs like SLV and GLD?

As a stock investor, you’re likely not seeking exposure to precious metals in the futures or spot market. The most commonly traded metals-backed options are the following ETFs:

• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which you could learn more about in the StockCharts’ Symbol Summary; and
• iShares Silver Trust (SLV), whose info is also available in the Symbol Summary.

The prices will differ as ETFs are structured differently. With that said, what do these price moves mean for the ETFs?

• If gold climbs to $3,100 an ounce, GLD—designed to track 1/10th of an ounce—could be trading in the $310 to $330 range.
• If silver makes a run at $50, SLV could surge right alongside it, potentially hitting $50 per share.

If you’re looking to ride the metals rally without holding physical bullion, these ETFs offer a direct and highly liquid way to gain exposure. And if silver’s historical catch-up to gold kicks in, SLV could potentially deliver the bigger upside.

At the Close

Gold and silver are both showing signs of strength, backed by macroeconomic pressure, historical ratios (at least for silver), and the overall technical context. Silver could be setting up for a catch-up move that might outperform gold in percentage terms. So, stay nimble, watch your levels, and remember that when silver moves, it often moves fast.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The stronger-than-expected Services PMI reported on Monday injected optimism into the stock market. There was also some relief as news hit that the April 2 implementation of tariffs may be scaled back.

On Tuesday, however, the market hit the brakes and stalled the upside momentum. Consumer confidence fell by 7.2 points in March, a sign that U.S. consumers are worried about the economic outlook. This, along with uncertainty about tariffs and other policies, will likely remain the focus in investors’ minds.

The bigger focus should be on whether the recent upside move in the broader stock market indexes has legs. Let’s shift our attention to the charts of the broader markets.

The Technical Picture

In the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, the index crossed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Monday, a big hurdle for the index to overcome. Alas, the lack of follow-through on Tuesday could mean the 200-day may now act as a support level. The index could also bust through its January lows and start moving up toward its 50-day SMA.

FIGURE 1. S&P 500 INDEX BROKE ABOVE 200-DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE. Will the index break above its January lows? That would be the next big hurdle.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Market breadth is showing signs of expanding, with the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index above 50, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line starting to trend higher, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day SMA shy of 50%.

The picture isn’t as positive for the Nasdaq Composite as it is for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq is approaching its 200-day SMA, and market breadth is showing signs of improvement, although slight (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The index is approaching its 200-day SMA while its breadth is showing slight signs of expanding.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three broader indexes, the Dow is the one showing the most promising upside move (see chart below). Like its close cousins, it crossed above its 200-day SMA, but its market breadth has expanded more than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Its BPI is at 60 and the A-D Line is relatively high. The percentage of Dow stocks trading above their 200-day SMA is at 19%, but remember, the Dow has only 30 stocks in the index.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. The 200-day SMA is now a support level. All three breadth indicators are showing signs of rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Small-cap stocks have lagged the larger indexes and, even though the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) bounced off its March 13 low, there’s not enough follow-through to carry small caps higher. Replace the symbol in any of the above charts with $SML.

Bonds turned around on Tuesday in response to the weaker consumer confidence data. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) rose until the consumer confidence data was released, after which it slid lower. This was the move that should have raised eyebrows.

Bond Yields Also Teeter-Totter

Movements in Treasury yields are very telling about the state of the economy. To keep tabs on the movement in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, investors should monitor the Japanese yen. This may not be something you usually look at, but, given we’re in an environment where conditions change from one day to the next, it’s helpful to add a chart of the U.S. dollar relative to the yen in your ChartLists.

The daily chart of $USDJPY below has an overlay of the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The bottom panel monitors the performance of the 10-year yields.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE U.S. DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN. The currency pair gives an idea of the overall health of the U.S. economy.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Generally, when U.S. Treasury yields fall, the U.S. dollar weakens relative to the yen. On Monday, the dollar rose relative to the yen when equities and Treasury yields rose, but fell on Tuesday, in conjunction with the fall in yields. You can see the close correlation between the two in the chart above.

On Monday, $USDJPY broke above the 21-day EMA. On Tuesday, the EMA acted as a support level. Can the dollar hold on to this support level and continue to strengthen relative to the yen? Yields generally rise when the economy is growing, so monitoring this chart regularly will give you a general idea of how the U.S. economy is performing.

Other Market Activity

Sector rotation was all over the place, moving back and forth from offensive to defensive. On Tuesday, Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate were the worst-performing sectors. Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials were the best-performing sectors. However, the change was modest, so there’s not enough to confirm a move from offensive to defensive or vice versa.

Closing Bell

Overall, the market isn’t showing convincing directional movement. Tuesday’s market activity was a bit like watching paint dry—not too exciting relative to what we have seen in the last few weeks. The upside move we saw since Friday seems to have slowed. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) eased and closed at around 17, so today’s lackluster price movement didn’t do anything to make investors fearful.

The most important data this week will probably be the February PCE, which is released on Friday. Let’s see if that stirs things up.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.