Tariff threat complicating copper trade

If the US imposes a 25 percent tariff on copper imports, analysts say the price gap between Comex and LME copper could widen even further, potentially surpassing US$2,000.

StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray told the Financial Times that this would further distort global copper trade, creating strong incentives for suppliers to shift even more metal to the US market.

Wei Lai, deputy trading head at Zijin Mining Investment Shanghai, told Bloomberg that “a round of cross-regional repricing triggered by potential US tariffs’ is unfolding. The rush to divert supply to the US is leaving other regions short of the metal, while also boosting investor confidence in copper as a lucrative commodity.

Beyond tariffs, the copper market is facing broader supply-side challenges. Processing fees for copper smelters have reached historic lows, raising concerns about the long-term viability of some refining operations. An oversupply of smelting capacity — particularly in China — has made it difficult for copper smelters to maintain profitability.

Commodities trading giant Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) recently announced it would halt operations at its Philippine copper smelter, citing “increasingly challenging market conditions” as processing fees collapsed.

More smelters could shut down if the situation persists, further tightening copper supply and boosting prices.

While trade policy is a key factor driving copper’s price surge, broader macroeconomic trends are also playing a role. Expectations of rising demand from Germany’s major infrastructure and military spending initiatives, as well as stimulus measures in China, are supporting bullish sentiment for the metal. Furthermore, some investors are diversifying away from US tech stocks, shifting funds into gold and industrial metals as a hedge against economic volatility.

During the recent Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention, Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, explained why US tariffs on copper imports would be a bad idea.

‘Logically, if you’re worried that we need a lot of copper in the US and we’re not producing enough, the last thing you want to do is put tariffs on shipments from abroad,’ Day explained. ‘I suspect, that the people making a recommendation will recommend no tariffs, and they’ll recommend encouraging domestic production, and so on.’

Rising copper prices boost China’s Zijin

The positive impact of higher copper prices is already being felt across the mining sector.

Zijin Mining Group (OTC Pink:ZIJMF,SHA:601899), China’s largest metals producer, reported a 52 percent jump in profit last year, driven by increased output and soaring prices for copper and gold. The company posted net income of 32.1 billion yuan (US$4.4 billion), with revenue climbing 3.5 percent to 303.6 billion yuan.

Despite these gains, Zijin recently lowered its copper output target for 2025 by about 6 percent to 1.15 million metric tons, citing regulatory hurdles and geopolitical challenges that have slowed its overseas expansion. Resistance to Chinese acquisitions in western markets has also played a role in the company’s revised projections.

Market waits for copper probe results

For now, the outlook for copper is uncertain as traders await the results of the US tariff investigation.

While final recommendations are unlikely to come until later this year, major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C), expect 25 percent import duties on copper by the end of 2025.

In the meantime, copper prices are likely to remain volatile.

As of midday Thursday (March 19), LME copper was trading just below US$10,000, with other base metals showing mixed performance. Aluminum remained slightly higher, while nickel remained steady.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, markets were largely positive this week. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) gained 2.57 percent during the week to close at 637.79 on Friday (March 14), the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) was up 1.7 percent to 24,968.49 and the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) dropped 0.4 percent to 123.20.

After seeing sharp declines in recent weeks, US equity markets were up slightly this week. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) gained 0.6 percent to close the week at 5,667.57 and the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) rose 0.42 percent to 19,753.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) saw the largest gains adding 1.27 percent to 41,985.36.

Gold held above the US$3,000 mark this week and set a new all time high at US$3,053 following the Fed’s rate announcement. Overall, the gold price gained 1.23 percent over the week to US$3,021.85 per ounce at 4:00 p.m. EDT Friday. The silver price went the opposite direction, losing 2.35 percent during the period to US$33.03.

In base metals, the copper price broke through US$5 per pound this week, gaining 4.69 percent to close out Friday at US$5.12 per pound on the COMEX. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) was up 1.18 percent to close at 558.21.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

So how did mining stocks perform against this backdrop? We break down this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

US hydrogen stocks

The US hydrogen market is well established, accounting for “more than half the world’s fuel cell vehicles, 25,000 fuel cell material handling vehicles, more than 8,000 small scale fuel systems in 40 states, and more than 550 MW of large-scale fuel cell power installed or planned,” according to the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association.

The US was also the top exporter of hydrogen in 2023 with US$2.15 billion in exports based on data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).

Looking at the medium to long term, the use of hydrogen as a fuel source is expected to grow. While the strong government incentives enacted under former US President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, such as a production tax credit, may be on the ropes under the Trump Administration, there is still optimism among industry leaders.

Canadian hydrogen stocks

Like its neighbor to the south, Canada is a world leader in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, especially when it comes to innovation, research and development. The country reportedly generates C$200 million in hydrogen technology exports according to data from January 2023. In terms of the global hydrogen market, the country exported $385 million worth of hydrogen in 2023, ranking ninth overall according to the OEC.

The federal government is heavily invested in the sector both in terms of funding and the implementation of clean energy policies. “The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada laid out a framework that focuses low-carbon hydrogen as a tool to achieve our goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, while creating jobs, growing our economy, expanding exports and protecting our environment,’ Natural Resources Canada states.

In British Columbia, the Government of Canada invested C$9.4 billion to launch a new Clean Hydrogen Hub that will use electrolyzer technology and hydroelectricity to generate hydrogen that can be sold to industry users.

On the global stage, Canada and its trading partner Germany have agreed to each commit C$300 million for a total of C$600 million to launch Atlantic Canada’s hydrogen export industry, which will send hydrogen to Germany. However, delays due to factors including high hydrogen prices and inflation as well as lack of infrastructure have pushed the expected start of exports back from 2025.

Australian hydrogen stocks

Australia is another important hotspot for investing in hydrogen. The Australian Government says that ‘over AU$200 billion is currently in the investment pipeline for hydrogen and derivatives,’ accounting for 20 percent of announced renewable hydrogen projects worldwide.

The Australian government’s National Hydrogen Strategy, which it updated in 2023, highlights its intention to position the country as a “major player” in the global hydrogen market by 2030. To this end, Australia has partnered with a number of other nations on hydrogen technology.

Australia and Germany are working together on a hydrogen technology development program that will help Australia build out its capacity to export hydrogen to Germany as it seeks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. Through a partnership with Japan, Australia is developing new hydrogen fuel cell technology and looking to establish the world’s first clean liquefied hydrogen export pilot project, and its government has invested more than AU$500 million in the development of regional hydrogen hubs across the country.

In May 2024, the Australian government announced an AU$22.7 billion package to bolster the country’s domestic manufacturing and renewable energy sector, including AU$6.7 billion for renewable hydrogen production starting in mid-year 2028 through the 2039/2040 fiscal year.

FAQS for hydrogen investing

Boeing Starliner issues and SpaceX rescue mission

Wilmore and Williams’ mission was the Starliner’s first crewed flight, and they were supposed to return after eight days. After they landed on the ISS on June 6, 2024, NASA delayed their return due to technical issues with the Starliner.

NASA had detected a helium leak shortly before launching the Starliner, but proceeded with the mission. However, the spacecraft experienced additional helium leaks and thruster failures during docking. Due to uncertainty about thruster reliability during reentry, NASA opted for an uncrewed return to Earth.

NASA then turned to SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space exploration startup, and began preparations for the crew to return on a SpaceX Dragon capsule. At that time, NASA expected the astronauts to return to Earth in February 2025, but subsequent technical delays led to a revised launch date from earth on March 11.

Wilmore and Williams made the most of their prolonged stay on the ISS, conducting 150 experiments, the CBC reports. Williams also broke the record for total spacewalking time by a female astronaut.

NASA and SpaceX postponed the flight again until March 14 due to an issue with the ground equipment used to support the flight. In the end, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket carrying its Dragon craft left Earth from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center at 7:03 p.m. EDT on Friday, March 14, arriving at the ISS roughly 29 hours later on Sunday, March 16. The Dragon undocked from the ISS to bring the mission home a few days later on Tuesday at 1:05 a.m., landing back on Earth later that day.

“On behalf of Crew-9, I’d like to say it was a privilege to call the station home, to live and work and to be a part of a mission and a team that spans the globe, working together in cooperation for the benefit of humanity,” Hague said as the capsule undocked. “Crew-9 going home.”

Private companies’ growing role in space travel

The successful return of Wilmore and Williams highlights the growing role of private companies in space travel. The aging ISS, slated for decommissioning due to escalating maintenance, helped provide the impetus for this new era.

In June 2023, the US Biden administration awarded SpaceX a contract valued at US$843 million to build a spacecraft that will guide the ISS out of orbit, allowing it to break up upon re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

While the mission is slated for 2030, Musk advocated in February for completion within two years. ‘It has served its purpose,’ he posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. ‘There is very little incremental utility. Let’s go to Mars.’

His push for speed comes as competition in the commercial space sector rises. Multiple delays and technical challenges faced by Boeing’s Starliner program have created opportunities for private companies like SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin to expand their presence and capabilities in the commercial space sector. SpaceX is also developing its Starship reusable launch vehicle, intended for a range of purposes, including travel to the Moon and Mars.

2025 has seen numerous high-profile launches and tests, with each launch representing a strategic step in the broader space race. Blue Origin successfully completed the inaugural launch of its New Glenn rocket in January. SpaceX has also conducted two test flights of its Starship rocket so far this year, although both exploded after launch. Four of eight Starship tests have been successful since its first test in 2023, with the next slated for April.

US-China space race and Musk-Trump conflict of interest

Competition between the US and China for strategic dominance in space has intensified since China’s Chang’e-4 mission achieved the first-ever soft landing on the far side of the Moon in January 2019.

This was a significant technological achievement that demonstrated the capabilities of China’s space program, which benefits from consistent investment by the government.

Conversely, while NASA remains a substantial recipient of government funding, the amount has fluctuated over the decades, leading to periods of constrained budgets. Recognizing the potential for innovation and efficiency, NASA has progressively incorporated commercial partnerships into its programs.

The Artemis program — NASA’s lunar exploration program that directly competes with China’s Chang’e — demonstrates this strategic shift through its collaboration with SpaceX for the Human Landing System. SpaceX has also taken a more active role in providing crew and cargo transportation to the ISS, as well as launch services for various NASA missions.

Musk’s financial support to US President Donald Trump’s campaign sparked concerns over the potential influence the billionaire would have over NASA-related decisions, including funding allocation. Trump’s actions since taking office in January fueled these concerns further — Trump chose Jared Isaacman, a close friend of Musk and a billionaire with no government experience, to head NASA. His appointment not been confirmed by the US Senate at this time.

Subsequent decisions, such as the closure of two NASA offices and NASA laying off significant portions of its workforce to comply with the administration, have intensified concerns about the agency’s future direction and the extent to which private interests may be shaping its priorities. These actions have collectively stoked apprehension about a potential conflict of interest due to Musk’s involvement and the consequences for the agency’s independence and public trust.

Since the November US election results, Musk’s private companies have increased in value significantly. SpaceX’s value alone rose by 67 percent to US$350 billion after a secondary share sale in December 2024.

While purchasing shares of privately held SpaceX is not an option for many investors, those who qualify as accredited investors can invest in a SpaceX funding round. Additionally, accredited investors can access shares through secondary markets, which are platforms where existing shareholders of a private company can buy and sell their shares.

Caplight analysis shows the secondary market has increased the collective value of Musk’s private companies — including SpaceX, xAI, the Boring Company and Neuralink — by 45 percent since the US election.

Javier Avalos, CEO of the trading platform, told Bloomberg that investors are willing to pay more than the latest offer price to acquire shares of SpaceX. Caplight states in its reporting that special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which are legal entities often created to pool investments from multiple contributors, accounted for 43 percent of the total secondary transaction volume in Q4 2024. That’s compared to just 12 percent in 2023.

A March 8 Financial Times article states that three anonymous Chinese asset managers shared they had sold over US$30 million in shares of Musk’s private companies over the past two years to Chinese investors using SPVs.

The sources alleged that Chinese asset managers are promoting Musk’s relationship with Trump “as an enticement to raise capital,’ adding that the asset managers tell their clients that SPVs “are specifically designed to avoid disclosure.”

However, the sources said the investments are primarily profit-driven has little connection with technology transfer or influencing public policy. Rather, Chinese investors have utilized SPVs to mitigate public disclosure risks. “Risks do exist because we are not sure how bad US-China relations will become in the next few years,” one source told the outlet.

Investor takeaway

The successful return of the Crew-9 astronauts aboard a SpaceX Dragon capsule highlights the increasing role of private companies in space travel. This event, coupled with the growing competition in the commercial space sector and strategic shifts in NASA’s approach, signifies a new era in space exploration.

Moreover, the high valuation and investor interest in companies like SpaceX, despite the challenges and competition, further underscores the dynamism and potential of this evolving industry.