Overview

Torrent Capital (TSXV:TORR) is a publicly traded investment company providing exposure to an actively managed growth portfolio of public and private investments.

Torrent Capital provides investors with access to a sector-agnostic, actively managed portfolio that blends long-term core holdings with income-generating strategies. Our diversified platform spans public equities, private ventures, and royalty investments. This approach is designed to deliver compounded NAV growth.

Portfolio Overview

Public Equities

Torrent’s core public equity holdings include the following:

Kneat (TSX:KSI) – A leader in SaaS solutions for digitising validation and quality processes in regulated industries, including life sciences. Torrent invested early, recognising Kneat’s scalable platform and its potential to transform compliance-heavy sectors globally.

Lemonade (NYSE:LMND) – An insurance technology company that leverages artificial intelligence to automate operations such as claims processing and policy issuance, disrupting the $2 trillion global insurance market.

SentinelOne (NYSE:S) – A global leader in AI-powered cybersecurity. Torrent invested in SentinelOne for its ability to disrupt traditional security solutions and scale rapidly as enterprises adopt automated threat detection and response.

Fortune Bay (TSXV:FOR) – A Canadian gold exploration company with promising assets in Saskatchewan and Mexico. Torrent’s investment reflects our belief in gold’s enduring role as a hedge against market volatility, coupled with Fortune Bay’s potential to unlock significant resource value through exploration success.

Sona Nanotech (CSE:SONA) – Innovator in nanotechnology with applications across healthcare and diagnostics. Torrent’s investment thesis is based on the potential for Sona’s unique gold nanorods to deliver breakthroughs in medical technology, particularly in diagnostics and cancer treatment.

ReeXploration (TSXV:REE) – A rare earth exploration company focused on the Eureka Project in Namibia. Torrent invested in ReeXploration for its strategic exposure to critical minerals essential to clean energy and advanced technologies.

Private Ventures

Torrent selectively invests in early-stage private ventures with high growth potential.

Holding:

OARO Technologies – A cybersecurity and digital identity company delivering advanced blockchain-powered authentication, digital ticketing, and secure credential solutions. Torrent invested in OARO for its ability to meet the growing global demand for secure, scalable identity management, positioning the company at the intersection of cybersecurity and blockchain adoption.

Royalty Investments

Torrent maintains selective exposure to royalty investments designed to generate potential long-term, recurring cash flows.

Key investment:

Argentia Capital – Argentia Capital is focused on the construction of port infrastructure, the provision of services and equity ownership in businesses that support aquaculture, renewable energy, and oil and gas sectors, as well as other port developments.

Company Highlights

• Proven Performance Across Market Cycles: NAV grew from ~$0.25 in 2017 to ~$0.87 as of November 30, 2025 (15.84 percent CAGR), Outperforming the S&P500 and TSX Small Cap Index, which increased at rates of 13.13 percent and 7.77 percent respectively.
• Diversified Investment Model: Combines public equities, private ventures and royalty investments to balance growth and stability through market cycles.
• Active Management and Transparency: Torrent publishes frequent NAV updates and portfolio disclosures, providing clarity that differentiates it from other investment companies.
• Proven Leadership: Led by CEO Wade Dawe and a team with over C$2 billion in deals completed, Torrent combines decades of entrepreneurial and capital markets experience across public and private companies.
• Strategic focus: Targeted exposure to key growth themes—including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and critical minerals—balancing innovation with defensive holdings to produce long-term compounding.

Management Team

Torrent’s leadership is aligned with shareholders and focused on long-term value creation.

Wade Dawe – Chief Executive Officer, Director

Wade Dawe is an Atlantic Canadian entrepreneur and skilled investor. Fiercely independent throughout the entirety of his career, he achieved early success internationally in the resource sector and went on to play a pivotal role in a number of companies as a financier and company founder.

Carl Sheppard – President & Chief Operating Officer, Director

Carl Sheppard is the current president and chief operating officer of Torrent Capital and is also the president and managing partner of Strategic Concepts, a business consulting company. For the past 30 years, he has provided consulting services to many of Canada’s leading resource companies and organizations. He has participated in numerous economic studies, strategic plans, cost/benefit reports and business plans targeted at the identification of development opportunities.

Eric Thompson – Chief Financial Officer

Eric Thompson has over ten years of accounting and assurance experience in both public practice and industry. Prior to assuming the CFO position, he served as the controller of Torrent Capital, contributing to enhanced financial reporting and treasury oversight.

Evan Dawe, CFA – Portfolio Manager – Public Equities

Evan Dawe is a Portfolio Manager at Torrent Capital, focused on identifying high-growth public equity opportunities across U.S. and Canadian markets. He brings a rigorous, fundamentals-driven approach with a strong emphasis on business quality, competitive positioning, and long-term value creation. Evan is a CFA charter holder and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from Queen’s University. Prior to Torrent Capital, he served as a Corporate Development Officer at Numus Capital, where he sourced venture capital deal flow and coordinated capital raises for early-stage companies.

Jim Megann – Director

Jim Megann is Managing Director of Numus Financial and serves as a Director of OARO Technologies. He has extensive experience in capital markets, corporate development, and strategic communications, and is the former Chair of NWest Energy.

Carl Hansen – Director

Carl Hansen is CEO of Cascada Silver Corp. and a geologist with more than 30 years of experience in exploration, mining, and public markets. He has led multiple successful exploration companies and has significant experience in corporate finance and capital formation.

Wayne Myles – Director

Wayne Myles is a legal advisor specializing in international mergers and acquisitions, corporate, and commercial law. He provides strategic legal guidance to Torrent’s management and board on governance and cross-border transaction structures.

Investor Insight

New Found Gold is an emerging Canadian gold producer with a multi-asset portfolio in Newfoundland and Labrador, anchored by the high-grade, district-scale Queensway project and complemented by the Hammerdown operation and permitted processing infrastructure at Pine Cove and Nugget Pond. New Found Gold offers a combination of near-term cash flow potential and long-term, district-scale growth.

Overview

New Found Gold (TSXV:NFG,NYSE:NFGC) is an emerging Canadian gold producer with assets located in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The company’s portfolio includes its flagship Queensway gold project, as well as the Hammerdown operation, Pine Cove mill and Nugget Pond hydrometallurgical gold plant.

In 2025, New Found Gold refreshed its board of directors and management team, adding a group of experienced mine builders and operators to support the company’s transition from exploration to production, and build off its established exploration expertise. The reconstituted board is led by chairman Paul Andre Huet and includes seasoned mining executives and capital markets specialists.

In November 2025, New Found Gold completed the acquisition of Maritime Resources, creating a diversified gold company with both development and producing assets in a top-tier jurisdiction. The transaction brought together two high-quality gold projects — Queensway and Hammerdown — and added permitted processing infrastructure, positioning the company to pursue a clear path to production and cash flow.

The company is currently focused on ramping up Hammerdown safely and efficiently through 2026, while advancing Queensway through engineering, permitting and project finance toward a targeted Phase 1 start-up in H2/2027. This multi-asset approach is intended to support near-term cash flow potential while maintaining meaningful exploration and development upside through Queensway’s large, high-grade gold system.

At Queensway, New Found Gold has consolidated a district-scale land position and continues to advance technical work including infill drilling, grade control drilling, geotechnical studies, metallurgical testwork, environmental baseline studies and broader exploration programs. In parallel, the company has engaged Cutfield Freeman as project finance advisor to help evaluate and select an optimal financing package for Queensway Phase 1 initial capital.

Company Highlights

• District-scale land package at Queensway totaling 230,225 hectares and covering more than 110 kilometres of strike along two major fault zones
• Hammerdown operation commenced production with a first gold pour in November 2025 and is targeted to ramp up to commercial/steady-state production through 2026
• Ownership of the Pine Cove operation (fully permitted mill and tailings facility) and Nugget Pond hydrometallurgical gold plant, providing processing infrastructure and optionality to support both Hammerdown and Queensway Phase 1
• Strengthened management team and refreshed board led by chairman Paul Andre Huet, with a solid shareholder base including cornerstone investor Eric Sprott

Key Projects

Queensway Gold Project

The 100 percent owned Queensway gold project is New Found Gold’s flagship asset and the primary driver of long-term value creation. Located in central Newfoundland, Queensway spans 230,225 hectares and covers more than 110 kilometres of strike along the Appleton and JBP fault zones, highlighting its district-scale exploration potential.

Aerial view of the Queensway gold project, adjacent to the Trans-Canada Highway near Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador

In 2025, New Found Gold published its initial MRE for Queensway, outlining 18 Mt grading 2.40 grams per ton (g/t) gold for 1.39 Moz (indicated), with an additional 10.7 Mt grading 1.77 g/t gold for 0.61 Moz (inferred), establishing a solid mineral resource base to underpin development studies.

In July 2025, New Found Gold completed a PEA for Queensway showing total production of approximately 1.5 Moz over a 15-year mine life and robust base-case economics, including after-tax NPV5 percent of C$743 million and after-tax IRR of 56.3 percent at US$2,500/oz gold, with life-of-mine AISC of US$1,256/oz, and Phase 1 initial capital of approximately C$155 million. The PEA outlines a phased development strategy designed to accelerate the project’s path to production, with Phase 1 focused on high-grade, near-surface mineralization from the Appleton Fault Zone (AFZ) Core and a low-capital processing approach leveraging off-site milling and tailings capacity (including the company’s permitted Pine Cove facility).

The AFZ Core hosts multiple high-grade gold zones, including Keats, Iceberg, Keats West, Lotto and Monte Carlo, which form the foundation of the PEA mine plan. Ongoing infill drilling, grade control drilling, excavation and geotechnical programs are being carried out to support mine planning, improve resource confidence, and advance future mineral resource updates. In 2025, the company completed more than 74,000 metres of diamond drilling, primarily focused on resource definition and pre-development work, alongside continued near-surface excavation, mapping and channel sampling in key zones.

Beyond the current mine plan, continued drilling along strike and at depth across Queensway has delivered new discoveries, highlighting the project’s potential for resource growth beyond the initial PEA scope. Notably, exploration success at targets outside the AFZ Core — including the Dropkick zone — underscores the broader camp-scale potential across the district-scale land package.

Hammerdown Operation

The Hammerdown operation is a high-grade gold project that New Found Gold is advancing through production ramp-up. Following the Maritime acquisition, Hammerdown achieved a first gold pour in November 2025 and is targeted to ramp up to commercial/steady-state production later in 2026.

Hammerdown benefits from on-island processing infrastructure and regional synergies, providing the company flexibility to pursue a production-focused strategy alongside ongoing development at Queensway. Hammerdown is the first step in establishing New Found Gold as a new Canadian gold producer.

Pine Cove Operation and Nugget Pond Hydrometallurgical Gold Plant

New Found Gold also owns the Pine Cove operation, which includes a fully permitted mill and tailings facility, as well as the Nugget Pond hydrometallurgical gold plant. These assets provide the company with permitted processing infrastructure in Newfoundland and Labrador and support operational flexibility as Hammerdown ramps up and Queensway advances toward a phased production strategy.

Management Team

Keith Boyle — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Keith Boyle brings over 40 years of global mining experience, including extensive roles in operations, project development, technical studies, investor relations and budget management. Prior to joining New Found Gold, Mr. Boyle served as chief operating officer at Reunion Gold, where he fast-tracked the high-grade Oko West project in Guyana ahead of its acquisition for $870 million. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Mining Engineering and an MBA, and is a registered professional engineer in Ontario and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Paul Andre Huet – Chairman

Paul Andre Huet is currently the chief executive officer at Americas Gold and Silver and was chairman and CEO of Karora Resources from 2019 to 2024, until its acquisition by Westgold Resources for $1.3 billion. Prior to this he was president, CEO and Director of Klondex Mines from 2012 to 2018, until its acquisition by Hecla Mining Company for $700 million. Huet has a strong command of capital markets and has served in all levels of engineering and operations within publicly traded mining companies. He graduated with Honors from the Mining Engineering Technology program at Haileybury School of Mines in Ontario and successfully completed the Stanford Executive program at the Stanford School of business.

Melissa Render — President

Melissa Render is an exploration geologist with more than 18 years of experience focused on orogenic gold systems. She joined New Found Gold as a consultant in 2020, became vice-president, exploration in 2021, and was promoted to president in 2024. Ms. Render has led exploration programs worldwide across multiple gold belts and brings expertise in target generation, 3D modelling, data management and exploration program design. She holds a Bachelor of Science in Geological and Earth Sciences from Dalhousie University and is a registered professional geoscientist in Ontario and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Hashim Ahmed — Chief Financial Officer

Hashim Ahmed brings 25 years of finance, corporate strategy and capital markets experience to New Found Gold. He has held senior financial and executive positions across the mining industry, including most recently as executive vice-president and CFO at Mandalay Resources. His background spans royalty, mid-tier and senior gold companies. Mr. Ahmed obtained his CA/CPA designation with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

Robert Assabgu — Chief Operating Officer

Robert Assabgu is an experienced mining engineer with expertise in project management, engineering and operations. His career includes leadership roles at Inco/Vale and Hudbay Minerals, where he oversaw multiple mines, concentrators and technical services teams. He also played a key role at Reunion Gold on the Oko West project ahead of the G Mining Ventures acquisition. Mr. Assabgui holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree in Mining and Mineral Engineering from McGill University in Montreal.

Fiona Childe — Vice-president, Communications and Corporate Development

Fiona Childe has more than 25 years of industry experience, beginning as an exploration geologist and later focusing on capital markets, corporate development and investor communications. Throughout her career, she has held senior management positions and consulted for mining companies, such as Mineros S.A. and Tau Capital Corp. with a primary focus on gold. Dr. Childe holds a Ph.D. in geology from the University of British Columbia and a professional geoscientist designation in Ontario.

Jared Saunders — Vice-president, Sustainability

Jared Saunders brings over two decades of experience in environmental science, regulatory compliance and stakeholder engagement. His background includes environmental leadership roles at Vale Newfoundland & Labrador and consulting project experience in environmental risk assessment and contaminated site management. Dr. Saunders holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Sciences degree from the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ontario. He sits on the Board of Directors for Mining Industry, NL as Director – Exploration.

Jelena Novikov Fried — General Counsel and Corporate Secretary

Jelena Novikov Fried has more than 20 years of legal experience in corporate, commercial and securities law. Prior to joining New Found Gold, she served as legal director, corporate and securities at lithium-ion battery recycler Li-Cycle, and practiced corporate and securities law with Cassels Brock & Blackwell LLP and Bennett Jones LLP. Ms. Novikov Fried holds a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

Markets and commodities react

Canadian equity markets were mixed this week.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 0.34 percent over the week to close Friday at 33,144.98, while the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) fared better, rising 5.53 percent to 1,154.15. The CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) went the other way, losing 0.39 percent to close at 187.36.

The gold price continued to trade at all-time highs this week, reaching US$4,989.94 on Friday afternoon. Overall, it gained 7.96 percent on the week to trade at US$4,984.92 by Friday at 4:00 p.m. EST.

The silver price performed even better, officially hitting triple digit silver when it broke above US$100 per ounce on Friday at new highs. It posted a weekly gain of 11.19 percent, closing Friday at US$102.72. Silver has gained nearly 42 percent since the start of 2026 and 233 percent from this same time last year.

In base metals, the Comex copper price rose 1 percent this week to US$5.98.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) rose 3.61 percent to end Friday at 584.13.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stocks data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market caps greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.

1. Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN)

Weekly gain: 134.29 percent
Market cap: C$23.56 million
Share price: C$0.41

Euro Manganese is a manganese development company working to advance its Chvaletice waste recycling project. The operation is focused on extracting manganese from tailings that are part of a decommissioned mine site near Prague, Czechia. As part of the project’s scope, the company says it will carry out remediation and reclamation work to bring the site into compliance with environmental regulations.

A 2022 feasibility study for the Chvaletice project indicates that it will produce 48,000 metric tons of manganese per year and is expected to have a project life of 25 years. In the study, the company reports a post-tax net present value of US$1.3 billion with an internal rate of return of 22 percent and a payback period of 4 years.

Shares in Euro Manganese were up this week, but the company has not released news since January 13, when it announced that John Webster tendered his resignation from the company’s board of directors.

Euro noted on Friday that it was unaware of any material change in its operations that could have caused the price rise.

2. Kingfisher Metals (TSXV:KFR)

Weekly gain: 106.35 percent
Market cap: C$38.24 million
Share price: C$0.65

Kingfisher Metals is an exploration company focused on its HWY 37 project located in British Columbia, Canada.

The property, located in BC’s Golden Triangle, covers 933 square kilometers and hosts several porphyry and epithermal copper and gold deposits, including Hank and Williams, which were identified during historical exploration of the site.

On January 13, the company announced additional results from its 2025 exploration and drill program at HWY 37, releasing assays for three drill holes at the Williams deposit, two of which some of Williams’ longest copper intercepts yet. Kingfisher highlighted one hole, with grades of 0.47 percent copper equivalent over 889.35 meters, starting 3.65 meters from surface, which also included an interval of 1.16 percent copper equivalent over 40 meters.

Then on Thursday (January 22), Kingfisher reported that it had received the final results from the program, this time in the form of a deep drill hole at the Hank epithermal gold-silver system. While the hole intersected Hank’s typical mineralisation in the upper half of the hole, starting at 534 meters it encountered a 425 meter interval grading 0.4 percent copper equivalent.

The company said this represented a blind discovery, with no previous porphyry copper and gold mineralization being reported at Hank.

“The final hole of the 2025 program validates our long-standing belief that the shallow Hank Au-Ag epithermal mineralization is driven by a large porphyry Cu-Au system,” said Kingfisher CEO Dustin Perry.

3. Core Critical Metals (TSXV:CCMC)

Weekly gain: 94.68 percent
Market cap: C$15.04 million
Share price: C$1.83

Core Critical Metals is an exploration company working on its Timmins nickel project in Ontario, Canada. The company was previously known as Xander Resources but announced in August that it was changing its name to Core Critical Metals.

The project holds a strategic position, with two properties totaling 393 claims located west along trend from Canada Nickel Company’s (TSXV:CNC,OTCQX:CNIKF) Crawford property and adjacent to Canada Nickel’s Reid discovery.

On Monday, Core Critical Minerals issued a release congratulating Canada Nickel on the success of Crawford’s development. It also noted Crawford’s inclusion for the second tranche of projects from the Government of Canada’s Major Project Office in November 2025, and the more recent designation under Ontario’s One Project, One Process framework on January 13.

Additionally, the company announced on January 15 that it had issued 1.24 million common shares to settle a C$400,000 exploration debt with the vendor of a property option agreement for the CNC West property. It followed this news the next day when it announced a two-for-one stock split on January 16.

4. GoldHaven Resources (CSE:GOH)

Weekly gain: 94.44 percent
Market cap: C$10.3 million
Share price: C$0.35

GoldHaven Resource is an exploration and development company advancing projects in British Columbia and Brazil.

Its most recent focus has been on its Magno project in BC’s Cassiar mining district. The property consists of 53 mineral claims covering 36,814.16 hectares and borders mineral claims held by Cassiar Gold (TSXV:GLDC,OTCQX:CGLCF) and Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE).

The site hosts silver, lead and gold mineralization at Magno North, with additional quantities of tin, indium and gallium. Porphyry targets at Magno West have shown mineralization with copper and molybdenum.

Since the start of the year, the company has released a trio of updates from Magno.

The first came on January 6, when it announced that preliminary assays from surface exploration confirmed the presence of silver, lead, zinc, tungsten and critical minerals across multiple zones at the property. The release highlighted grades of up to 2,370 grams per metric ton silver, 19.25 percent zinc, 6,550 parts per million (ppm) tungsten and 334 ppm indium.

The second release came on January 14, providing additional information on its tungsten results, noting that exploration confirmed anomalous tungsten mineralization at the historical Kuhn and Dead Goat showings, and found a new tungsten zone at Vines Lake.

The most recent release came on Thursday when GoldHaven reported that indium grades at the site show it is a ‘meaningful critical mineral component of the Magno system.’ These elevated grades were found to be restricted to the Magno and D Zones, as well as the Kuhn and Dead Goat showings.

5. Ascot Resources (TSX:AOT)

Weekly gain: 91.21 percent
Market cap: C$38.24 million
Share price: C$1.74

Ascot Resources is a Canadian gold exploration and development company focused on the negotiating the restart of mining operations at its Premier gold project, and on its Red Mountain gold project.

The site is located within the Golden Triangle area of Northern British Columbia, and hosts the Premier, Silver Coin and Big Missouri deposits, as well as one of only three mills in the region.

Production at the mine began in April 2024, but operations were placed on care and maintenance in September 2024. At the time, the company said it had fallen behind schedule in developing the mine and did not have enough material to feed the mill.

In an update from April 2025, the company said it was anticipating the mine would restart in early August at an initial rate of 1,250 metric tons per day. However, on June 25, Ascot announced that the mine would not restart as negotiations with mining contractor Procon Mining regarding the cost of mining services had stalled.

On October 23, the company announced that the mine would remain on care and maintenance and that it had engaged Fiore Management to assist with restructuring, refinancing and enhancing the leadership team at Ascot.

Since that time, the company has launched a fundraising effort, with the most recent news on December 31, when it announced it had closed the first tranche of a private placement raising C$809.1 million.

In that release, President and CEO Robert McLeod stated that further detailed updates on Ascot’s plans, as well a proposed rebrand, would be coming in the weeks ahead. ‘We believe the rapid development of the high-grade, underground bulk-mineable Red Mountain Project is the key to the successful commissioning and operation of a centralized mill to process material from the multiple deposits in the Golden Triangle.”

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Manganese prices struggle as structural demand builds

By June 20, 2025, manganese’s H1 gains had eroded and ore prices fell to US$4.21.

Eramet (EPA:ERA,OTCPL:ERMAF), a major producer, said it expected supply of manganese ore to increase in the second half of 2025, partly as key producers such as Australia returned volumes to market after earlier disruptions.

‘Ore supply should increase in H2, driven by the full return to the market of the leading Australian producer, partly offset by a potential downward revision of South African exports,’ the company notes. Demand for manganese alloys was expected to weaken in line with seasonality and softer global steel production.

Analysts cautioned that production expansions from major manganese producers could exacerbate oversupply. “Production increases … can only lead to oversupply, leading to a reduction in price,” one industry executive said.

Protectionist measures in key markets, including new EU quotas on ferroalloys, added uncertainty by potentially disrupting traditional trade flows and affecting alloy pricing dynamics.

Beyond the steel sector, structural shifts in consumption patterns emerged.

Although steelmaking still accounts for the lion’s share of manganese demand, interest in battery-related uses, particularly high-purity manganese for lithium-ion and next-generation EV chemistries, continued to gain attention.

“Our expectations of ongoing strengthening battery-grade demand and production in China in Q4 have been tempered somewhat by ongoing challenges within the nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) market,” Rob Searle, battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets, wrote in a November battery metals market update.

“While we expect a level of demand ramp-up in Q4, in the wider context of geopolitical challenges and a challenging Chinese market, the manganese demand uptick in the short term could be somewhat tempered,’ he added.

Changing battery chemistries

During a June Supply Chain (SC) Insights webinar, experts noted that manganese-rich cathode chemistries are increasingly drawing attention as automakers seek to cut costs and reduce exposure to cobalt and nickel.

Andy Leyland, founder of SC Insights, pointed out “manganese-rich chemistry is really offering a good solution … in terms of costs,” highlighting the commodity’s role in emerging battery designs.

While high-nickel NCM batteries remain dominant, industry players are exploring manganese as a lower-cost, high-performance alternative in Europe and North America, where supply chains remain heavily reliant on imports, particularly from China. OEMs are under pressure to secure raw materials directly, with vertical integration and direct sourcing emerging as key strategies to manage price volatility and supply security.

John Mulcahy, supply chain specialist at SC Insights, emphasized that sourcing upstream allows companies to negotiate better terms and reduce exposure to market fluctuations, even amid low pricing environments.

Manganese-rich chemistries are expected to expand steadily, complementing existing NCM and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, rather than replacing them entirely.

As Leyland noted, these materials are “definitely very high up on the focus from the demand side,” signaling growing adoption in the global push for cost-effective, low-cobalt battery solutions.

In March, Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTCPL:FRBMF) produced its first lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) EV batteries, becoming the first Australian company to achieve the feat. The move could position Firebird as a low-cost manganese cathode player, and highlights growth in the LMFP battery production segment.

Rising nationalism presents trade challenges

With the demand picture for manganese showing promise, analysts warn that export restrictions in Gabon could lead to a supply crunch before the decade is over. According to the US Geological Survey, 63 percent of US manganese imports come from Gabon. In June, the African nation announced plans to implement an export ban in January 2029.

Gabon’s renewed push to ban manganese ore exports from 2029 underscores Africa’s broader shift toward value addition, but it also risks tightening an already fragile global supply picture, a Project Blue market note reads.

As the world’s second largest exporter, Gabon shipped more than 7 million metric tons of high-grade ore in 2024, material that is critical to both ferroalloy production and emerging battery supply chains.

An export ban would hit Chinese buyers and European processors reliant on Gabonese feedstock, while adding pressure to the high-grade market at a time when Australia’s GEMCO mine is expected to wind down later this decade.

Although in-country processing — through ferroalloys or batteries — offers a path to capture more value locally, it would require significant investment and could shift, rather than eliminate, environmental and logistical costs.

For global markets, Gabon’s move signals rising resource nationalism in Africa and a potential structural squeeze on manganese supply heading into the next decade.

“However, without large-scale investments from China, a key battery producer, such ambitious plans of African governments risk remaining unrealised,” the Project Blue overview states.

“China has invested in Africa’s mineral industry (e.g. Ghana), securing access to the continent’s high-quality raw materials, while keeping production of high value-added products directly in China.”

In early 2025, Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCPL:EUMNF) scored a major boost when its Chvaletice manganese project was designated a “strategic project” under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act.

The move underscores the EU’s push to secure local supply of critical battery materials and could tighten the manganese market by prioritizing European production in the continent’s energy transition.

Oversupply vs. new manganese demand drivers

For 2026, analysts expect the manganese market to remain broadly balanced, but with pressures and opportunities on both the supply and demand fronts. However, longer-term fundamentals point to steady growth.

Global market forecasts indicate the manganese industry could expand modestly in value and volume by 2035, driven by ongoing demand from steel and increasing uptake in battery and clean-energy applications.

Some reports project market size rising through the decades, with Asia-Pacific demand remaining dominant and new opportunities emerging in the electrification and high-purity material segments.

Steel demand will continue to be the principal driver in 2026, with India’s expanding production offering a potential buffer against slower growth in China and Europe. Battery applications may not yet move the pricing needle dramatically, but their structural importance is increasing as automakers and cathode developers look to diversify away from nickel and cobalt reliance, a trend that could support manganese demand in the medium term.

“Looking ahead to the coming weeks and months, it is likely we won’t see too much further upward pressure on prices. Asian markets are heading towards the seasonal lull in demand and manufacturing activity in February as the Lunar New Year holidays begin,” Searle said in a January Fastmarkets report.

“At the same time, there are concerns around what China’s EV demand outlook looks like in Q1 2026, with changes to subsidy schemes potentially leading to softening consumption of battery-grade manganese.”