Has it been a while since the broader market indexes closed in the green? It certainly seems that way.
After what looked like a weak start to the new year, the stock market showed us it still had legs. The week’s trading day ended with the broader stock market indexes all closing in the green. But in the first half hour of the trading day, things didn’t look great. There was a lot of choppy movement, but it settled down and went higher and finished strong. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors closed higher with Consumer Discretionary at the top (more on that below).
Friday was the last day of the Santa Claus Rally. While Santa skipped Wall St. this year, Friday’s price action in the S&P 500 ($SPX) left investors optimistic. The S&P 500 was able to hold on to its November lows (see the daily chart of S&P 500 below), which is an encouraging sign. But we’re not out of the woods yet.
FIGURE 1. S&P 500 HOLDS ABOVE NOVEMBER LOWS. Friday’s price action was encouraging but increasing breadth would be more confirming of a turnaround.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Thursday’s price action was nerve-wracking — there was a time when the index was trading below its November lows. Fortunately, it recovered and closed a little above it. Friday’s close was encouraging, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.26%, hitting resistance at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). But the market breadth indicators in the lower panels need to be stronger. The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is at 41, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line is declining, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is 56.
Friday’s MarketCarpet based on the performance of the S&P 500 shows that heavy-weighted large caps such as NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG and GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) ended the day higher.
FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPET FOR JANUARY 3. Most of the higher market cap stocks closed higher on Friday.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
TSLA had a massive move rising 8.10% closing the gap between December 31 and January 2. TSLA is a stock to monitor, especially since it has a deep connection with the new administration set to take office on January 20. The stock bounced on Friday after five down days.
NVDA’s stock price also had an impressive rally on Friday after consolidating since early November. These two stocks, TSLA and NVDA, helped the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors take the top two positions in Friday’s sector performance.
Overall, Friday’s price action was a ray of hope that perhaps the January Barometer — as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year — might be the one out of the trifecta that can come through. The January Barometer was devised by Yale Hirsch and has an 83.3% accuracy rate.
Steel, Beer, and Used Cars
While many tech stocks saw big gains, it wasn’t the same for US Steel Group (X). President Biden blocked the takeover of the company by Nippon Steel, resulting in a 6.53% drop in the price of X.
Alcoholic beverage companies didn’t have a great day either after US Surgeon General, Vivek Murthy, said alcoholic drinks should include cancer risk warnings on their labels. Shares of Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP), Boston Beer Co. (SAM), and Constellation Brands (STZ) all fell on Friday.
Shares of Carvana (CVNA) fell over 11% after Hindenberg Research accused the company of accounting manipulation. Although Carvana denied the allegations and the stock received an upgrade from J.P. Morgan analysts, it didn’t help lift the stock price. CVNA’s stock price fell 17.53% (see chart below).
FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF CVNA STOCK. Two sets of Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn on the chart, one from a previous high to low (blue) and another from a more recent low to high (red).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Carvana had a high StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score, and we’ve covered the stock in our past SCTR Reports. Once the SCTR score fell below the 90 level on December 23, it raised a red flag. Combine that with a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a previous high to low (blue line) and a relative strength index below 70 and you have a clear sell signal.
It will be interesting to see how this story develops. If things clear up and CVNA can show that it didn’t engage in accounting manipulations, the stock price could turn around and rise quickly.
Yields, US Dollar, Oil
The bond market had a choppy day. The 10-year yield closed at 4.596%, which hurt bond prices. The US dollar surged on Thursday but pulled back a bit on Friday. The chart of the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) displays that Friday’s price action was within Thursday’s range. There’s no sign of a weakness in the US dollar, which continues to remain strong.
FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND. The dollar has been rising steadily since October.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Crude oil prices rose today. The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 1.83% on Thursday and up 1.29% on Friday. Oil prices have been going sideways since October but recent price action shows that it may be breaking out of its slump.
For a short trading week, that’s a lot of moving parts. Although stocks closed higher on Friday, there’s still not enough clarity on the charts to show a reversal. Next week could tell a different story.
End-of-Week Wrap-Up
S&P 500 down 0.48% for the week, at 5942.47, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.60% for the week at 42,732.13; Nasdaq Composite down 0.51% for the week at 19,621.68$VIX up 1.13% for the week, closing at 16.13Best performing sector for the week: EnergyWorst performing sector for the week: MaterialsTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)
On the Radar Next Week
December PMINovember Factory OrdersNovember JOLTS ReportDecember ISM ServicesDecember Non-Farm PayrollsFOMC MinutesFed speeches from Cook, Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.